What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?
December 11 100.0%
December 8 <1%
December 9 <1%
December 10 <1%
$10,068,650 Vol.
$10,068,650 Vol.
December 8
$437 Vol.
No
December 8
$437 Vol.
No
December 9
$34,652 Vol.
No
December 9
$34,652 Vol.
No
December 10
$45,326 Vol.
No
December 10
$45,326 Vol.
No
December 11
$9,190,061 Vol.
Yes
December 11
$9,190,061 Vol.
Yes
December 12
$214,630 Vol.
No
December 12
$214,630 Vol.
No
December 13
$72,781 Vol.
No
December 13
$72,781 Vol.
No
December 14
$39,086 Vol.
No
December 14
$39,086 Vol.
No
December 15
$55,912 Vol.
No
December 15
$55,912 Vol.
No
December 16
$37,705 Vol.
No
December 16
$37,705 Vol.
No
December 17
$31,410 Vol.
No
December 17
$31,410 Vol.
No
December 18
$35,987 Vol.
No
December 18
$35,987 Vol.
No
December 19
$23,379 Vol.
No
December 19
$23,379 Vol.
No
December 20
$18,882 Vol.
No
December 20
$18,882 Vol.
No
December 21
$18,719 Vol.
No
December 21
$18,719 Vol.
No
December 22
$25,652 Vol.
No
December 22
$25,652 Vol.
No
December 23
$21,797 Vol.
No
December 23
$21,797 Vol.
No
December 24
$21,549 Vol.
No
December 24
$21,549 Vol.
No
December 25
$17,219 Vol.
No
December 25
$17,219 Vol.
No
December 26
$15,737 Vol.
No
December 26
$15,737 Vol.
No
December 27
$10,550 Vol.
No
December 27
$10,550 Vol.
No
December 28
$12,252 Vol.
No
December 28
$12,252 Vol.
No
December 29
$15,498 Vol.
No
December 29
$15,498 Vol.
No
December 30
$18,931 Vol.
No
December 30
$18,931 Vol.
No
December 31+
$90,498 Vol.
No
December 31+
$90,498 Vol.
No
Rules
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Dec 8, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
What day will OpenAI next release a new frontier model?
December 11 100.0%
December 8 <1%
December 9 <1%
December 10 <1%
$10,068,650 Vol.
$10,068,650 Vol.
December 8
No
December 9
No
December 10
No
December 11
Yes
December 12
No
December 13
No
December 14
No
December 15
No
December 16
No
December 17
No
December 18
No
December 19
No
December 20
No
December 21
No
December 22
No
December 23
No
December 24
No
December 25
No
December 26
No
December 27
No
December 28
No
December 29
No
December 30
No
December 31+
No
About
Resolver
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