James Walkinshaw’s commanding position in the VA-11 House race stems from the district’s long-standing Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+18 Cook PVI and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won a September 2025 special election by roughly 50 points after succeeding the late Gerry Connolly, Walkinshaw benefits from name recognition, substantial fundraising, and an unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a suburban Northern Virginia seat with heavy federal workforce presence. Trader consensus pricing at 97.4% for Walkinshaw incorporates these factors while acknowledging that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026, general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-11 House Election Winner
VA-11 House Election Winner
$28,311 Vol.
$28,311 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
<1%
$28,311 Vol.
$28,311 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
$16,670 Vol.
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
$11,641 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw’s commanding position in the VA-11 House race stems from the district’s long-standing Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+18 Cook PVI and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won a September 2025 special election by roughly 50 points after succeeding the late Gerry Connolly, Walkinshaw benefits from name recognition, substantial fundraising, and an unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a suburban Northern Virginia seat with heavy federal workforce presence. Trader consensus pricing at 97.4% for Walkinshaw incorporates these factors while acknowledging that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,311End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw’s commanding position in the VA-11 House race stems from the district’s long-standing Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+18 Cook PVI and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won a September 2025 special election by roughly 50 points after succeeding the late Gerry Connolly, Walkinshaw benefits from name recognition, substantial fundraising, and an unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a suburban Northern Virginia seat with heavy federal workforce presence. Trader consensus pricing at 97.4% for Walkinshaw incorporates these factors while acknowledging that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,311End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...James Walkinshaw’s commanding position in the VA-11 House race stems from the district’s long-standing Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+18 Cook PVI and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. As the incumbent who won a September 2025 special election by roughly 50 points after succeeding the late Gerry Connolly, Walkinshaw benefits from name recognition, substantial fundraising, and an unopposed Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a suburban Northern Virginia seat with heavy federal workforce presence. Trader consensus pricing at 97.4% for Walkinshaw incorporates these factors while acknowledging that late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3, 2026, general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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