Suhas Subramanyam's double-digit polling leads over Republican Mike Clancy have solidified trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats to win the open VA-10 House seat, reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index and Subramanyam's fundraising edge—$3.4 million raised versus Clancy's $1.1 million as of late October. Recent RMG Research (October 18-21) shows Subramanyam ahead 52%-37%, widening from prior surveys amid strong early voting turnout in Northern Virginia suburbs. Retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton's endorsement and a candidate debate where Subramanyam emphasized local infrastructure priorities further boosted sentiment. With the November 5 election approaching, Republican upset odds at 16.5% hinge on unexpected GOP turnout surges or national tailwinds, but structural advantages favor the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVA-10 House Election Winner
VA-10 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Suhas Subramanyam's double-digit polling leads over Republican Mike Clancy have solidified trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats to win the open VA-10 House seat, reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index and Subramanyam's fundraising edge—$3.4 million raised versus Clancy's $1.1 million as of late October. Recent RMG Research (October 18-21) shows Subramanyam ahead 52%-37%, widening from prior surveys amid strong early voting turnout in Northern Virginia suburbs. Retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton's endorsement and a candidate debate where Subramanyam emphasized local infrastructure priorities further boosted sentiment. With the November 5 election approaching, Republican upset odds at 16.5% hinge on unexpected GOP turnout surges or national tailwinds, but structural advantages favor the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Suhas Subramanyam's double-digit polling leads over Republican Mike Clancy have solidified trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats to win the open VA-10 House seat, reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index and Subramanyam's fundraising edge—$3.4 million raised versus Clancy's $1.1 million as of late October. Recent RMG Research (October 18-21) shows Subramanyam ahead 52%-37%, widening from prior surveys amid strong early voting turnout in Northern Virginia suburbs. Retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton's endorsement and a candidate debate where Subramanyam emphasized local infrastructure priorities further boosted sentiment. With the November 5 election approaching, Republican upset odds at 16.5% hinge on unexpected GOP turnout surges or national tailwinds, but structural advantages favor the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Suhas Subramanyam's double-digit polling leads over Republican Mike Clancy have solidified trader consensus at 86.5% for Democrats to win the open VA-10 House seat, reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index and Subramanyam's fundraising edge—$3.4 million raised versus Clancy's $1.1 million as of late October. Recent RMG Research (October 18-21) shows Subramanyam ahead 52%-37%, widening from prior surveys amid strong early voting turnout in Northern Virginia suburbs. Retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton's endorsement and a candidate debate where Subramanyam emphasized local infrastructure priorities further boosted sentiment. With the November 5 election approaching, Republican upset odds at 16.5% hinge on unexpected GOP turnout surges or national tailwinds, but structural advantages favor the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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