The expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026 left the United States and Russia without binding limits on strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades. Kremlin officials stated in late September that bilateral arms control talks are overdue yet would require lengthy expert negotiations, citing persistent differences over the Ukraine conflict as a barrier to broader diplomatic resets. U.S. President Trump has renewed calls for trilateral discussions also involving China, an approach Beijing continues to reject while Moscow signals openness to exploring formats at events such as the November APEC summit. These dynamics, alongside verification challenges and modernization programs on all sides, shape trader assessments of prospects for any new bilateral agreement within near-term windows.