Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

Name: U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?
Start: 2025-06-30T23:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-06-30T23:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$876,632 Vol.

Jun 30, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States military provides in-air refueling to Israeli aircraft as part of operations involving strikes on Iranian territory by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Strikes must be confirmed as targeting sites within Iran, and the refueling must be directly associated with those missions. General military cooperation, joint exercises, or unrelated refueling operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible media reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

<1% chance

$876,632 Vol.

Jun 30, 2025

About

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: No

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

19%

Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?

63%

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

53%

Beware of external links.

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

Market Context