The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without full-scale detonations. Recent trader sentiment reflects uncertainty following a March 24, 2026, Senate hearing where a top Defense Department official, responding to Senator Jacky Rosen, declined to rule out resuming underground tests amid a Trump administration directive assessing capabilities. This comes after October 2025 reports of orders to prepare testing protocols, later clarified by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as not involving immediate explosions, and U.S. accusations of clandestine Chinese nuclear activities. No test schedule has been announced, with congressional oversight and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty considerations as key barriers; watch for NNSA announcements or fiscal 2027 budget details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$610,352 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
June 30, 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
41%
December 31, 2026
26%
$610,352 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$41 Vol.
41%
December 31, 2026
$92 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without full-scale detonations. Recent trader sentiment reflects uncertainty following a March 24, 2026, Senate hearing where a top Defense Department official, responding to Senator Jacky Rosen, declined to rule out resuming underground tests amid a Trump administration directive assessing capabilities. This comes after October 2025 reports of orders to prepare testing protocols, later clarified by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as not involving immediate explosions, and U.S. accusations of clandestine Chinese nuclear activities. No test schedule has been announced, with congressional oversight and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty considerations as key barriers; watch for NNSA announcements or fiscal 2027 budget details.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$610,352End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without full-scale detonations. Recent trader sentiment reflects uncertainty following a March 24, 2026, Senate hearing where a top Defense Department official, responding to Senator Jacky Rosen, declined to rule out resuming underground tests amid a Trump administration directive assessing capabilities. This comes after October 2025 reports of orders to prepare testing protocols, later clarified by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as not involving immediate explosions, and U.S. accusations of clandestine Chinese nuclear activities. No test schedule has been announced, with congressional oversight and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty considerations as key barriers; watch for NNSA announcements or fiscal 2027 budget details.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,352End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without full-scale detonations. Recent trader sentiment reflects uncertainty following a March 24, 2026, Senate hearing where a top Defense Department official, responding to Senator Jacky Rosen, declined to rule out resuming underground tests amid a Trump administration directive assessing capabilities. This comes after October 2025 reports of orders to prepare testing protocols, later clarified by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as not involving immediate explosions, and U.S. accusations of clandestine Chinese nuclear activities. No test schedule has been announced, with congressional oversight and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty considerations as key barriers; watch for NNSA announcements or fiscal 2027 budget details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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