Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Tech·Middle East·

Asked by

Open Source Intel

UK strike on Iran before July?

Name: UK strike on Iran before July?
Start: 2025-06-30T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$334,129 Vol.

Jun 30, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iran soil between June 19, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by UK military forces that impact Iran ground territory. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iran territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly along the line of control, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or sanctions, will not qualify.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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