Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting the company's flawless 18-quarter streak of surpassing analyst estimates and pre-release signals of robust performance. TSMC confirmed the beat today with record revenue of $35.9 billion (versus $35.5 billion expected), ADR EPS of $3.49 (versus $3.31 consensus), and 58% profit growth fueled by insatiable AI chip demand from Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers—high-end nodes like 3nm now comprise over 50% of wafer revenue. Gross margins expanded to 62.3% amid pricing power and 72% foundry market share. Tail risks remain minimal but include potential GAAP restatements, geopolitical disruptions in Taiwan, or softer-than-guided Q2 demand amid macroeconomic slowdowns; Q2 guidance projects $40.2 billion revenue with 65.5-67.5% margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,246 Vol.
$19,246 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
$19,246 Vol.
$19,246 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting the company's flawless 18-quarter streak of surpassing analyst estimates and pre-release signals of robust performance. TSMC confirmed the beat today with record revenue of $35.9 billion (versus $35.5 billion expected), ADR EPS of $3.49 (versus $3.31 consensus), and 58% profit growth fueled by insatiable AI chip demand from Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers—high-end nodes like 3nm now comprise over 50% of wafer revenue. Gross margins expanded to 62.3% amid pricing power and 72% foundry market share. Tail risks remain minimal but include potential GAAP restatements, geopolitical disruptions in Taiwan, or softer-than-guided Q2 demand amid macroeconomic slowdowns; Q2 guidance projects $40.2 billion revenue with 65.5-67.5% margins.
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$19,246End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting the company's flawless 18-quarter streak of surpassing analyst estimates and pre-release signals of robust performance. TSMC confirmed the beat today with record revenue of $35.9 billion (versus $35.5 billion expected), ADR EPS of $3.49 (versus $3.31 consensus), and 58% profit growth fueled by insatiable AI chip demand from Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers—high-end nodes like 3nm now comprise over 50% of wafer revenue. Gross margins expanded to 62.3% amid pricing power and 72% foundry market share. Tail risks remain minimal but include potential GAAP restatements, geopolitical disruptions in Taiwan, or softer-than-guided Q2 demand amid macroeconomic slowdowns; Q2 guidance projects $40.2 billion revenue with 65.5-67.5% margins.
As of market creation, Taiwan Semiconductor is estimated to release earnings on April 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Taiwan Semiconductor releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$19,246End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will beat Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting the company's flawless 18-quarter streak of surpassing analyst estimates and pre-release signals of robust performance. TSMC confirmed the beat today with record revenue of $35.9 billion (versus $35.5 billion expected), ADR EPS of $3.49 (versus $3.31 consensus), and 58% profit growth fueled by insatiable AI chip demand from Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers—high-end nodes like 3nm now comprise over 50% of wafer revenue. Gross margins expanded to 62.3% amid pricing power and 72% foundry market share. Tail risks remain minimal but include potential GAAP restatements, geopolitical disruptions in Taiwan, or softer-than-guided Q2 demand amid macroeconomic slowdowns; Q2 guidance projects $40.2 billion revenue with 65.5-67.5% margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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