Market icon
Politics·Cabinet

Trump cabinet member out by...?

Market icon
Politics·Cabinet

Trump cabinet member out by...?

$23,539 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$23,539 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31, 2026

$11,310 Vol.

81%

June 30, 2026

$12,228 Vol.

98%

December 31, 2026

$0 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,539
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 2:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position between market creation and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. For the purpose of this market, a Cabinet level position is defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, Administrator of the EPA, President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP or any position listed on https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Pete Hegseth's rocky Senate confirmation hearing for Defense Secretary on December 4 stands as the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on early Trump cabinet departures, with allegations of past sexual misconduct, workplace drinking, and leadership lapses drawing bipartisan scrutiny from senators like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. Hegseth denied the claims, backed by Fox News colleagues, while President-elect Trump publicly reaffirmed his support, emphasizing reform priorities. No other nominees face comparable pressure, though Kash Patel's DNI prospects draw left-leaning opposition. Upcoming Armed Services Committee votes and full Senate confirmations by mid-January could trigger withdrawals, but GOP majorities and Trump's loyalty historically buffer early exits—traders price in this resilience amid rapid transition dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump cabinet member out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 99%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 98%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump cabinet member out by...?" has generated $23.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump cabinet member out by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump cabinet member out by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 98%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump cabinet member out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.