Name: Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?
Start: 2024-02-29T00:30:00Z
End: 2024-03-05T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Tennessee has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tennessee

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Virginia has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Virginia

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Texas has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Texas

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Utah has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Utah

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Vermont has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vermont

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and the next highest vote-getter: 
Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest) - # Next highest / (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Alabama has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alabama

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and the next highest vote-getter: 
Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest) - # Next highest / (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Alaska has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alaska

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Arkansas has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Arkansas

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if California has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

California

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if North Carolina has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

North Carolina

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Minnesota has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Minnesota

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Massachusetts has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Massachusetts

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Maine has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maine

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Colorado has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Colorado

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and votes for the next highest vote-getter: 
# Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest ) - # Next highest /  (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates. 

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Oklahoma has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Oklahoma

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Chip Roy be the Republican nominee for TX-21?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Janak Joshi be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025:

- Virginia Governor election
- Virginia House of Delegates election
- New Jersey Governor election
- New York City Mayor election
- California referendum “Proposition 50”

If the results of any of these elections are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will be resolved according to the results published thus far.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official election authority sources conducting the election.

Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.

If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate from Mississippi?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey.

If no 2026 New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a talk about the economy in Northeast Pennsylvania on December 9, 2025 (https://x.com/WVIATVFM/status/1996616358092554647).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance in Northeast Pennsylvania on December 9, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Oklahoma
$50,818 Vol.
No

Arkansas
$32,507 Vol.
No

Alabama
$47,831 Vol.
No

Alaska
$46,948 Vol.
Yes

Tennessee
$21,906 Vol.
No

Vermont
$34,525 Vol.
No

Massachusetts
$10,985 Vol.
No

Utah
$40,669 Vol.
No

Virginia
$19,468 Vol.
No

Colorado
$11,123 Vol.
No

California
$11,893 Vol.
No

Maine
$23,484 Vol.
No

Minnesota
$27,573 Vol.
No

North Carolina
$30,865 Vol.
No

Texas
$27,522 Vol.
No

Market Context

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Rules

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Market Context

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

About

Related

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Oklahoma$50,818 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Arkansas$32,507 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alabama$47,831 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alaska$46,948 Vol.Yescircle check

Tennessee$21,906 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Vermont$34,525 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Massachusetts$10,985 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Utah$40,669 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Virginia$19,468 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Colorado$11,123 Vol.Nocircle xmark

California$11,893 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Maine$23,484 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Minnesota$27,573 Vol.Nocircle xmark

North Carolina$30,865 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Texas$27,522 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Rules

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Market Context

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

About

Related

Oklahoma
$50,818 Vol.
No

Arkansas
$32,507 Vol.
No

Alabama
$47,831 Vol.
No

Alaska
$46,948 Vol.
Yes

Tennessee
$21,906 Vol.
No

Vermont
$34,525 Vol.
No

Massachusetts
$10,985 Vol.
No

Utah
$40,669 Vol.
No

Virginia
$19,468 Vol.
No

Colorado
$11,123 Vol.
No

California
$11,893 Vol.
No

Maine
$23,484 Vol.
No

Minnesota
$27,573 Vol.
No

North Carolina
$30,865 Vol.
No

Texas
$27,522 Vol.
No