President José Antonio Kast, who assumed office on March 11, has launched an aggressive security agenda, including immigration raids, border fortifications, and congressional approval last week for extending a regional state of emergency in Araucanía and Biobío to combat organized crime and Mapuche-related violence. However, these measures fall short of the more severe state of siege, which requires constitutional triggers like invasion or massive internal disorder. Localized student protests in Santiago on March 26–28 against education budget cuts prompted limited riot police response but no escalation. Trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" by June 30 underscores the contained nature of current tensions, with no verified developments signaling imminent nationwide upheaval warranting such an extreme declaration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast, who assumed office on March 11, has launched an aggressive security agenda, including immigration raids, border fortifications, and congressional approval last week for extending a regional state of emergency in Araucanía and Biobío to combat organized crime and Mapuche-related violence. However, these measures fall short of the more severe state of siege, which requires constitutional triggers like invasion or massive internal disorder. Localized student protests in Santiago on March 26–28 against education budget cuts prompted limited riot police response but no escalation. Trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" by June 30 underscores the contained nature of current tensions, with no verified developments signaling imminent nationwide upheaval warranting such an extreme declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$30,364End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast, who assumed office on March 11, has launched an aggressive security agenda, including immigration raids, border fortifications, and congressional approval last week for extending a regional state of emergency in Araucanía and Biobío to combat organized crime and Mapuche-related violence. However, these measures fall short of the more severe state of siege, which requires constitutional triggers like invasion or massive internal disorder. Localized student protests in Santiago on March 26–28 against education budget cuts prompted limited riot police response but no escalation. Trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" by June 30 underscores the contained nature of current tensions, with no verified developments signaling imminent nationwide upheaval warranting such an extreme declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,364End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President José Antonio Kast, who assumed office on March 11, has launched an aggressive security agenda, including immigration raids, border fortifications, and congressional approval last week for extending a regional state of emergency in Araucanía and Biobío to combat organized crime and Mapuche-related violence. However, these measures fall short of the more severe state of siege, which requires constitutional triggers like invasion or massive internal disorder. Localized student protests in Santiago on March 26–28 against education budget cuts prompted limited riot police response but no escalation. Trader consensus at 82.5% for "No" by June 30 underscores the contained nature of current tensions, with no verified developments signaling imminent nationwide upheaval warranting such an extreme declaration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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