Name: Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?
Start: 2024-08-13T14:36:57.503633Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a special counsel investigation into U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is publicly announced by the Department of Justice (DOJ) between August 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Investigations or inquiries not conducted by a special counsel or initiated by entities other than the DOJ will not be considered for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government.

Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

In November 2025, Donald Trump indicated his intent to urge the United States Justice Department to investigate alleged ties between Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Clinton. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-ask-justice-department-probe-epstein-ties-with-bill-clinton-2025-11-14/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Clinton is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Bill Clinton be federally indicted by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Bill Clinton between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Bill Clinton charged by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of sexual misconduct between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump engaged in sexual misconduct, or clearly describe behavior that meets that description. Sexual misconduct includes, but is not limited to, sexual harassment, sexual assault, unwanted advances, infidelity, affairs, or pedophilia. Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made by Maxwell and made public within the specified date range.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of sexual misconduct?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton between October 15, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hillary Clinton federally charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Chris Christie charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Summers serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Summers in jail before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal jurisdiction of the United States and/or the District of Columbia formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any former member(s) of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This includes the following individuals: Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, Zoe Lofgren, Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar, Stephanie Murphy, Jamie Raskin, Elaine Luria, Adam Kinzinger

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump charges Member of January 6 committee? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Walz charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Jackson Hinkle (@jacksonhinklle) between March 24 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jackson Hinkle indicted in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which were not previously public, by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 26?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Senator Mark Kelly by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Kelly charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming former President Bill Clinton committed sexual acts with a child under 18 years of age while he was a legal adult is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying sexual acts include physical sexual contact of any kind. Flirtation or sexual advances toward a minor that does not cross this boundary will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton confirmed pedophile by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?

Market Context

Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?

Rules

Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?

Market Context

Special counsel investigates Clarence Thomas in 2024?

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