Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by intensified military actions and stalled diplomatic efforts. Russia claimed full control of Ukraine's Luhansk region on April 1—disputed by Kyiv—amid ongoing drone strikes exceeding 700 vehicles in recent waves, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 31 Easter truce proposal for energy infrastructure drew a cool Kremlin response, insisting on comprehensive peace terms like Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, with prior US-brokered trilateral talks paused due to Middle East distractions. Absent major breakthroughs in the next four weeks, such as unexpected negotiations or external pressures, structural barriers including territorial disputes and front-line advances sustain high confidence in continuation of hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1,884,543 Vol.
$1,884,543 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$1,884,543 Vol.
$1,884,543 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by intensified military actions and stalled diplomatic efforts. Russia claimed full control of Ukraine's Luhansk region on April 1—disputed by Kyiv—amid ongoing drone strikes exceeding 700 vehicles in recent waves, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 31 Easter truce proposal for energy infrastructure drew a cool Kremlin response, insisting on comprehensive peace terms like Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, with prior US-brokered trilateral talks paused due to Middle East distractions. Absent major breakthroughs in the next four weeks, such as unexpected negotiations or external pressures, structural barriers including territorial disputes and front-line advances sustain high confidence in continuation of hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,884,543End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by intensified military actions and stalled diplomatic efforts. Russia claimed full control of Ukraine's Luhansk region on April 1—disputed by Kyiv—amid ongoing drone strikes exceeding 700 vehicles in recent waves, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 31 Easter truce proposal for energy infrastructure drew a cool Kremlin response, insisting on comprehensive peace terms like Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, with prior US-brokered trilateral talks paused due to Middle East distractions. Absent major breakthroughs in the next four weeks, such as unexpected negotiations or external pressures, structural barriers including territorial disputes and front-line advances sustain high confidence in continuation of hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,884,543End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by intensified military actions and stalled diplomatic efforts. Russia claimed full control of Ukraine's Luhansk region on April 1—disputed by Kyiv—amid ongoing drone strikes exceeding 700 vehicles in recent waves, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 31 Easter truce proposal for energy infrastructure drew a cool Kremlin response, insisting on comprehensive peace terms like Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, with prior US-brokered trilateral talks paused due to Middle East distractions. Absent major breakthroughs in the next four weeks, such as unexpected negotiations or external pressures, structural barriers including territorial disputes and front-line advances sustain high confidence in continuation of hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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