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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 11.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$530,708,042 Vol.

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 11.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$530,708,042 Vol.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

JD Vance

$10,344,648 Vol.

19%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Gavin Newsom

$15,167,416 Vol.

17%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Marco Rubio

$7,334,605 Vol.

12%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,946,728 Vol.

5%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Kamala Harris

$7,045,925 Vol.

5%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Jon Ossoff

$3,598,723 Vol.

4%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,841,584 Vol.

2%

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Donald Trump

$6,979,047 Vol.

2%

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,929,724 Vol.

2%

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tucker Carlson

$10,106,041 Vol.

2%

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,247,047 Vol.

1%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ron DeSantis

$9,251,459 Vol.

1%

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Andy Beshear

$17,516,203 Vol.

1%

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

JB Pritzker

$10,950,885 Vol.

1%

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$8,920,293 Vol.

1%

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Glenn Youngkin

$20,986,728 Vol.

1%

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Thomas Massie

$3,810,459 Vol.

1%

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

James Talarico

$4,759,508 Vol.

1%

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Elon Musk

$22,869,726 Vol.

1%

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Greg Abbott

$32,265,689 Vol.

1%

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ivanka Trump

$4,907,259 Vol.

1%

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Stephen Smith

$30,018,213 Vol.

1%

Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,707,559 Vol.

1%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$9,604,753 Vol.

1%

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Nikki Haley

$22,429,389 Vol.

1%

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Michelle Obama

$13,728,920 Vol.

1%

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Ro Khanna

$7,374,875 Vol.

1%

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$28,533,204 Vol.

1%

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Zohran Mamdani

$17,836,521 Vol.

1%

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Eric Trump

$6,896,500 Vol.

1%

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Tim Walz

$39,883,396 Vol.

1%

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Wes Moore

$6,802,189 Vol.

1%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Pete Hegseth

$4,739,651 Vol.

1%

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$31,230,668 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

Kim Kardashian

$33,150,758 Vol.

1%

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? icon

LeBron James

$47,011,332 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with odds reflecting an open, fragmented field over two years before the November election amid uncertainty in both party primaries. Recent Polymarket shifts show Newsom closing the gap as Vance's probabilities dipped following a March CPAC straw poll where Vance led at 53% but Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged to 35% on foreign policy credentials. A late-March UMass Lowell poll had Vance ahead 33%-30% over Newsom, underscoring the tight contest. The 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and candidate announcements could create separation by clarifying paths to nomination and general election viability.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$530,708,042
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with odds reflecting an open, fragmented field over two years before the November election amid uncertainty in both party primaries. Recent Polymarket shifts show Newsom closing the gap as Vance's probabilities dipped following a March CPAC straw poll where Vance led at 53% but Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged to 35% on foreign policy credentials. A late-March UMass Lowell poll had Vance ahead 33%-30% over Newsom, underscoring the tight contest. The 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and candidate announcements could create separation by clarifying paths to nomination and general election viability.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$530,708,042
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $530.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.