Portugal Presidential Election

Name: Portugal Presidential Election
Start: 2025-08-29T19:18:28.935224Z
End: 2026-01-25T14:00:00Z

$100,747,099 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

António José Seguro (IND) 67.8%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 18.1%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 7%

André Ventura (CH) 5.0%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,481,507 Vol.
68%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$1,849,076 Vol.
18%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$2,375,217 Vol.
7%

André Ventura (CH)
$5,117,385 Vol.
5%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$1,409,235 Vol.
3%

Rui Moreira (IND)
$3,593,220 Vol.
<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)
$1,144,646 Vol.
<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)
$660,775 Vol.
<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)
$330,615 Vol.
<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
$4,465,051 Vol.
<1%

André Pestana (IND)
$1,866,250 Vol.
<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)
$760,373 Vol.
<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)
$9,097,879 Vol.
<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)
$3,471,913 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
$8,683,561 Vol.
<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)
$4,129,057 Vol.
<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)
$7,064,103 Vol.
<1%

António Filipe (PCP)
$6,603,087 Vol.
<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)
$18,806,049 Vol.
<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)
$8,438,011 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
$3,902,906 Vol.
<1%

Jorge Pinto
$5,497,184 Vol.
<1%

Rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Created At: Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Volume

$100,747,099

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$100,747,099 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND) 67.8%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 18.1%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 7%

André Ventura (CH) 5.0%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)

$1,481,507 Vol.

68%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

$1,849,076 Vol.

18%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

$2,375,217 Vol.

André Ventura (CH)

$5,117,385 Vol.

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

$1,409,235 Vol.

Rui Moreira (IND)

$3,593,220 Vol.

<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)

$1,144,646 Vol.

<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)

$660,775 Vol.

<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)

$330,615 Vol.

<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)

$4,465,051 Vol.

<1%

André Pestana (IND)

$1,866,250 Vol.

<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)

$760,373 Vol.

<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)

$9,097,879 Vol.

<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)

$3,471,913 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)

$8,683,561 Vol.

<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)

$4,129,057 Vol.

<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)

$7,064,103 Vol.

<1%

António Filipe (PCP)

$6,603,087 Vol.

<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)

$18,806,049 Vol.

<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)

$8,438,011 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

$3,902,906 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Pinto

$5,497,184 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$100,747,099

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

53%

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

32%

Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

85%

Beware of external links.

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,481,507 Vol.
68%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$1,849,076 Vol.
18%