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Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?

Market icon

Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?

Mark Carney 100.0%

Chrystia Freeland  <1%

Dominic LeBlanc <1%

Mélanie Joly <1%

Polymarket

$27,419,368 Vol.

Mark Carney 100.0%

Chrystia Freeland  <1%

Dominic LeBlanc <1%

Mélanie Joly <1%

Polymarket

$27,419,368 Vol.

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Chrystia Freeland

$387,534 Vol.

No

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Dominic LeBlanc

$1,036,084 Vol.

No

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Mélanie Joly

$1,380,867 Vol.

No

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Mark Carney

$863,664 Vol.

Yes

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Anita Anand

$3,750,275 Vol.

No

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Francois-Philippe Champagne

$1,420,924 Vol.

No

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Sean Fraser

$1,735,177 Vol.

No

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Frank Baylis

$541,942 Vol.

No

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Jaime Battiste

$15,348,884 Vol.

No

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Karina Gould

$544,567 Vol.

No

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Ruby Dhalla

$409,449 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Chrystia Freeland. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$27,419,368
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2025, 12:23 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Chrystia Freeland. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Carney" at 100%, followed by "Chrystia Freeland " at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?" has generated $27.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?" is "Mark Carney" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Chrystia Freeland " at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.