Next Country US Strikes
Next Country US Strikes
Somalia 100.0%
Venezuela <1%
Nigeria <1%
Other <1%
$5,190,374 Vol.
$5,190,374 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela
No
Somalia
Yes
Nigeria
No
Other
No
None before 2027
No
Mexico
No
Colombia
No
Cuba
No
Iraq
No
Yemen
No
Syria
No
Iran
No
Somalia 100.0%
Venezuela <1%
Nigeria <1%
Other <1%
$5,190,374 Vol.
$5,190,374 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela
$190,702 Vol.
No
Somalia
$1,308,938 Vol.
Yes
Nigeria
$176,522 Vol.
No
Other
$476,182 Vol.
No
None before 2027
$379,429 Vol.
No
Mexico
$205,754 Vol.
No
Colombia
$213,798 Vol.
No
Cuba
$194,490 Vol.
No
Iraq
$338,792 Vol.
No
Yemen
$319,260 Vol.
No
Syria
$265,508 Vol.
No
Iran
$1,120,999 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5,190,374End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions