Incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary and faces Republican James Hooper in Michigan's 12th congressional district, which covers heavily Democratic areas of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Detroit. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in a D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Limited Republican fundraising, candidate visibility, and historical turnout patterns in this urban-suburban seat further reinforce trader consensus. A late scandal, major health development, or unprecedented national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-12 House Election Winner
MI-12 House Election Winner
$33,410 Vol.
$33,410 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$33,410 Vol.
$33,410 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,161 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,249 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary and faces Republican James Hooper in Michigan's 12th congressional district, which covers heavily Democratic areas of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Detroit. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in a D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Limited Republican fundraising, candidate visibility, and historical turnout patterns in this urban-suburban seat further reinforce trader consensus. A late scandal, major health development, or unprecedented national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$33,410End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary and faces Republican James Hooper in Michigan's 12th congressional district, which covers heavily Democratic areas of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Detroit. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in a D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Limited Republican fundraising, candidate visibility, and historical turnout patterns in this urban-suburban seat further reinforce trader consensus. A late scandal, major health development, or unprecedented national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,410End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary and faces Republican James Hooper in Michigan's 12th congressional district, which covers heavily Democratic areas of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Detroit. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in a D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Limited Republican fundraising, candidate visibility, and historical turnout patterns in this urban-suburban seat further reinforce trader consensus. A late scandal, major health development, or unprecedented national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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