Rashida Tlaib’s commanding position in the Michigan 12th congressional district reflects the area’s consistent Democratic lean, centered in portions of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Southfield. As the incumbent, Tlaib secured her party’s nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican James Hooper advanced unopposed. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Tlaib’s 2024 margin near 70 percent. Trader consensus at 96.9 percent for Tlaib incorporates these structural advantages and limited Republican infrastructure. A late scandal, health event, or unusually large national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate few realistic pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-12 House Election Winner
MI-12 House Election Winner
$40,394 Vol.
$40,394 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Rashida Tlaib (D)
97%
James Hooper (R)
<1%
$40,394 Vol.
$40,394 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Rashida Tlaib (D)
$21,751 Vol.
97%
James Hooper (R)
$18,643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib’s commanding position in the Michigan 12th congressional district reflects the area’s consistent Democratic lean, centered in portions of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Southfield. As the incumbent, Tlaib secured her party’s nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican James Hooper advanced unopposed. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Tlaib’s 2024 margin near 70 percent. Trader consensus at 96.9 percent for Tlaib incorporates these structural advantages and limited Republican infrastructure. A late scandal, health event, or unusually large national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate few realistic pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$40,394End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib’s commanding position in the Michigan 12th congressional district reflects the area’s consistent Democratic lean, centered in portions of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Southfield. As the incumbent, Tlaib secured her party’s nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican James Hooper advanced unopposed. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Tlaib’s 2024 margin near 70 percent. Trader consensus at 96.9 percent for Tlaib incorporates these structural advantages and limited Republican infrastructure. A late scandal, health event, or unusually large national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate few realistic pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,394End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rashida Tlaib’s commanding position in the Michigan 12th congressional district reflects the area’s consistent Democratic lean, centered in portions of Wayne and Oakland counties including Dearborn and Southfield. As the incumbent, Tlaib secured her party’s nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican James Hooper advanced unopposed. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Tlaib’s 2024 margin near 70 percent. Trader consensus at 96.9 percent for Tlaib incorporates these structural advantages and limited Republican infrastructure. A late scandal, health event, or unusually large national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate few realistic pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions