Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

$74,504 Vol.

7% chance

Rules

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “internet access is restored” means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have recovered to at least 20% of the prior 14-day baseline for a minimum of four consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart.

Only the first of the four consecutive qualifying hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir); however, in case the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$74,504
End Date
Jan 16, 2026
Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 9:44 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$74,504 Vol.

Market icon

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

7% chance

About

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “internet access is restored” means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have recovered to at least 20% of the prior 14-day baseline for a minimum of four consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart.

Only the first of the four consecutive qualifying hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir); however, in case the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$74,504
End Date
Jan 16, 2026
Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 9:44 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.