Name: How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
Start: 2025-01-06T22:33:33.831471Z
End: 2025-04-29T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the number of January 6th protestors that Trump will pardon during his first 100 days in office.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 500 (inclusive) and 749 (inclusive) people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

500-749

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 1,000 (inclusive) and 1,249 (inclusive) people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1,000-1,249 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if less than 250 people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

<250

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 250 (inclusive) and 499 (inclusive) people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

250-499

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 1,500 or more people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1,500+

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 750 (inclusive) and 999 (inclusive) people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

750-999

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 1,250 (inclusive) and 1,499 (inclusive) people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1,250-1,499

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Crypto Pardon Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal jurisdiction of the United States and/or the District of Columbia formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any former member(s) of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This includes the following individuals: Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, Zoe Lofgren, Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar, Stephanie Murphy, Jamie Raskin, Elaine Luria, Adam Kinzinger

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump charges Member of January 6 committee? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" in Washington on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Drug" or "Cartel" 3+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Adam Kinzinger?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

<250
$438,750 Vol.
No

250-499
$719,196 Vol.
No

500-749
$1,815,319 Vol.
No

750-999
$4,749,407 Vol.
No

1,000-1,249
$83,010 Vol.
No

1,250-1,499
$226,603 Vol.
Yes

1,500+
$136,990 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

Rules

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

Market Context

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

About

Related

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

<250$438,750 Vol.Nocircle xmark

250-499$719,196 Vol.Nocircle xmark

500-749$1,815,319 Vol.Nocircle xmark

750-999$4,749,407 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1,000-1,249 $83,010 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1,250-1,499$226,603 Vol.Yescircle check

1,500+$136,990 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

Rules

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

Market Context

How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

About

Related

<250
$438,750 Vol.
No

250-499
$719,196 Vol.
No

500-749
$1,815,319 Vol.
No

750-999
$4,749,407 Vol.
No

1,000-1,249
$83,010 Vol.
No

1,250-1,499
$226,603 Vol.
Yes

1,500+
$136,990 Vol.
No