Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 (31.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 11–13 (22.5%) and 17–19 (21.5%), driven by a recent cluster of four USGS-recorded events in the first quarter: M7.0 deep intraslab quake off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 normal faulting west of Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes per year, modeled as a Poisson process with inherent variability from tectonic clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Lower odds on extremes (<5 or 20+) reflect historical rarity of major deviations, though aftershock sequences or quiet spells could differentiate outcomes; USGS seismic catalog updates will refine counts through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 32%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 15.3%
$1,138,759 Vol.
$1,138,759 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
1%
5–7
2%
8–10
5%
11–13
23%
14–16
32%
17–19
22%
20+
15%
14–16 32%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 15.3%
$1,138,759 Vol.
$1,138,759 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$164,917 Vol.
1%
5–7
$65,185 Vol.
2%
8–10
$123,502 Vol.
5%
11–13
$381,160 Vol.
23%
14–16
$151,954 Vol.
32%
17–19
$198,936 Vol.
22%
20+
$53,105 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 (31.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 11–13 (22.5%) and 17–19 (21.5%), driven by a recent cluster of four USGS-recorded events in the first quarter: M7.0 deep intraslab quake off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 normal faulting west of Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes per year, modeled as a Poisson process with inherent variability from tectonic clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Lower odds on extremes (<5 or 20+) reflect historical rarity of major deviations, though aftershock sequences or quiet spells could differentiate outcomes; USGS seismic catalog updates will refine counts through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,138,759End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 (31.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 11–13 (22.5%) and 17–19 (21.5%), driven by a recent cluster of four USGS-recorded events in the first quarter: M7.0 deep intraslab quake off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 normal faulting west of Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes per year, modeled as a Poisson process with inherent variability from tectonic clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Lower odds on extremes (<5 or 20+) reflect historical rarity of major deviations, though aftershock sequences or quiet spells could differentiate outcomes; USGS seismic catalog updates will refine counts through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,138,759End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 (31.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 11–13 (22.5%) and 17–19 (21.5%), driven by a recent cluster of four USGS-recorded events in the first quarter: M7.0 deep intraslab quake off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 normal faulting west of Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes per year, modeled as a Poisson process with inherent variability from tectonic clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Lower odds on extremes (<5 or 20+) reflect historical rarity of major deviations, though aftershock sequences or quiet spells could differentiate outcomes; USGS seismic catalog updates will refine counts through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions