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Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

18°C 90%

19°C 10.5%

20°C 2.1%

21°C or higher <1%

Polymarket

$127,896 Vol.

18°C 90%

19°C 10.5%

20°C 2.1%

21°C or higher <1%

Polymarket

$127,896 Vol.

16°C

$19,016 Vol.

<1%

17°C

$19,750 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$7,430 Vol.

90%

19°C

$6,459 Vol.

10%

20°C

$9,301 Vol.

2%

21°C or higher

$6,589 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued early on March 28 projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Tokyo under mostly cloudy conditions with low precipitation chances, aligning closely with trader sentiment favoring 18°C at 82.5% implied probability and 19°C at 12.9%. This positioning stems from midday observations hovering near 17°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth—exceeding the daily average of 16.3°C—while partial cloud cover caps further intensification per ensemble model consensus. Recent model runs show minimal upside risk beyond 20°C, with historical late-March highs rarely surpassing 21°C; afternoon updates from JMA stations will provide final clarity as the market nears resolution.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued early on March 28 projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Tokyo under mostly cloudy conditions with low precipitation chances, aligning closely with trader sentiment favoring 18°C at 82.5% implied probability and 19°C at 12.9%. This positioning stems from midday observations hovering near 17°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth—exceeding the daily average of 16.3°C—while partial cloud cover caps further intensification per ensemble model consensus. Recent model runs show minimal upside risk beyond 20°C, with historical late-March highs rarely surpassing 21°C; afternoon updates from JMA stations will provide final clarity as the market nears resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued early on March 28 projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Tokyo under mostly cloudy conditions with low precipitation chances, aligning closely with trader sentiment favoring 18°C at 82.5% implied probability and 19°C at 12.9%. This positioning stems from midday observations hovering near 17°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth—exceeding the daily average of 16.3°C—while partial cloud cover caps further intensification per ensemble model consensus. Recent model runs show minimal upside risk beyond 20°C, with historical late-March highs rarely surpassing 21°C; afternoon updates from JMA stations will provide final clarity as the market nears resolution.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued early on March 28 projects a maximum temperature of 19°C in Tokyo under mostly cloudy conditions with low precipitation chances, aligning closely with trader sentiment favoring 18°C at 82.5% implied probability and 19°C at 12.9%. This positioning stems from midday observations hovering near 17°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth—exceeding the daily average of 16.3°C—while partial cloud cover caps further intensification per ensemble model consensus. Recent model runs show minimal upside risk beyond 20°C, with historical late-March highs rarely surpassing 21°C; afternoon updates from JMA stations will provide final clarity as the market nears resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "18°C" at 90%, followed by "19°C" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" has generated $127.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is "18°C" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "19°C" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.