Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen today at 79.5% implied probability, driven by morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport reaching the mid-20s Celsius under a dominant high-pressure ridge, as confirmed by recent China Meteorological Administration updates and converging ECMWF/GFS model ensembles. Strengthening southerly winds from the elevated South China Sea surface temperatures—around 24–25°C—coupled with mostly sunny skies and minimal cloud cover, support afternoon peaks near 28°C, amplified by 1–2°C urban heat island effects in this subtropical coastal city. The 15.3% for 29°C or higher reflects slim chances of prolonged clear conditions overriding sea breeze moderation, while lower outcomes lack model support amid spring warming above March climatological averages of 23–24°C highs. Hourly airport readings through late afternoon will refine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
28°C 82%
29°C or higher 16.6%
22°C <1%
27°C <1%
$261,933 Vol.
$261,933 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
22°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
82%
29°C or higher
17%
28°C 82%
29°C or higher 16.6%
22°C <1%
27°C <1%
$261,933 Vol.
$261,933 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
22°C
$9,873 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$39,089 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$7,665 Vol.
82%
29°C or higher
$12,990 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen today at 79.5% implied probability, driven by morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport reaching the mid-20s Celsius under a dominant high-pressure ridge, as confirmed by recent China Meteorological Administration updates and converging ECMWF/GFS model ensembles. Strengthening southerly winds from the elevated South China Sea surface temperatures—around 24–25°C—coupled with mostly sunny skies and minimal cloud cover, support afternoon peaks near 28°C, amplified by 1–2°C urban heat island effects in this subtropical coastal city. The 15.3% for 29°C or higher reflects slim chances of prolonged clear conditions overriding sea breeze moderation, while lower outcomes lack model support amid spring warming above March climatological averages of 23–24°C highs. Hourly airport readings through late afternoon will refine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Volume
$261,933End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen today at 79.5% implied probability, driven by morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport reaching the mid-20s Celsius under a dominant high-pressure ridge, as confirmed by recent China Meteorological Administration updates and converging ECMWF/GFS model ensembles. Strengthening southerly winds from the elevated South China Sea surface temperatures—around 24–25°C—coupled with mostly sunny skies and minimal cloud cover, support afternoon peaks near 28°C, amplified by 1–2°C urban heat island effects in this subtropical coastal city. The 15.3% for 29°C or higher reflects slim chances of prolonged clear conditions overriding sea breeze moderation, while lower outcomes lack model support amid spring warming above March climatological averages of 23–24°C highs. Hourly airport readings through late afternoon will refine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$261,933End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen today at 79.5% implied probability, driven by morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport reaching the mid-20s Celsius under a dominant high-pressure ridge, as confirmed by recent China Meteorological Administration updates and converging ECMWF/GFS model ensembles. Strengthening southerly winds from the elevated South China Sea surface temperatures—around 24–25°C—coupled with mostly sunny skies and minimal cloud cover, support afternoon peaks near 28°C, amplified by 1–2°C urban heat island effects in this subtropical coastal city. The 15.3% for 29°C or higher reflects slim chances of prolonged clear conditions overriding sea breeze moderation, while lower outcomes lack model support amid spring warming above March climatological averages of 23–24°C highs. Hourly airport readings through late afternoon will refine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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