Korea Meteorological Administration's latest medium-range forecast, updated April 2, projects a high near 20°C in Seoul and 17°C at Incheon International Airport— the market's resolution station—on April 5, amid 20% precipitation odds from an incoming low-pressure system. Trader consensus, however, favors cooler outcomes around 12-14°C (implied probabilities 17.5-22.0%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover timing and solar insolation that could cap peaks below model guidance, consistent with early April climatology averaging 13-15°C under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads across KMA, ECMWF, and GFS models show 2-4°C variability, with weekend rains potentially enhancing onshore flow and mixing cooler coastal air. Key updates from KMA short-range forecasts expected twice daily through April 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
12°C 22%
13°C 19%
14°C 17%
16°C or higher 16%
$13,959 Vol.
$13,959 Vol.
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
3%
9°C
5%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
22%
13°C
19%
14°C
17%
15°C
11%
16°C or higher
16%
12°C 22%
13°C 19%
14°C 17%
16°C or higher 16%
$13,959 Vol.
$13,959 Vol.
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
3%
9°C
5%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
22%
13°C
19%
14°C
17%
15°C
11%
16°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration's latest medium-range forecast, updated April 2, projects a high near 20°C in Seoul and 17°C at Incheon International Airport— the market's resolution station—on April 5, amid 20% precipitation odds from an incoming low-pressure system. Trader consensus, however, favors cooler outcomes around 12-14°C (implied probabilities 17.5-22.0%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover timing and solar insolation that could cap peaks below model guidance, consistent with early April climatology averaging 13-15°C under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spreads across KMA, ECMWF, and GFS models show 2-4°C variability, with weekend rains potentially enhancing onshore flow and mixing cooler coastal air. Key updates from KMA short-range forecasts expected twice daily through April 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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