Official Met Office observations confirm London's highest temperature on April 1, 2026, reached 14°C in the early afternoon at key monitoring stations, solidifying the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome as traders aligned with verified data from the previous day. Cloudy skies and light winds capped warming after overnight lows near 7–8°C, matching pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 13–15°C amid typical early spring conditions influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. This reflects historical April norms for central London (average highs ~12–13°C), with no significant deviations. Post-event resolution leaves minimal uncertainty, though a rare sensor recalibration or alternative station data (e.g., Heathrow vs. St. James's Park) could theoretically prompt review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 1?
Highest temperature in London on April 1?
14°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$305,546 Vol.
$305,546 Vol.
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$305,546 Vol.
$305,546 Vol.
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Met Office observations confirm London's highest temperature on April 1, 2026, reached 14°C in the early afternoon at key monitoring stations, solidifying the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome as traders aligned with verified data from the previous day. Cloudy skies and light winds capped warming after overnight lows near 7–8°C, matching pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 13–15°C amid typical early spring conditions influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. This reflects historical April norms for central London (average highs ~12–13°C), with no significant deviations. Post-event resolution leaves minimal uncertainty, though a rare sensor recalibration or alternative station data (e.g., Heathrow vs. St. James's Park) could theoretically prompt review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions