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Highest temperature in London on April 1?

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Highest temperature in London on April 1?

14°C 100.0%

11°C or below <1%

12°C <1%

13°C <1%

Polymarket

$305,546 Vol.

14°C 100.0%

11°C or below <1%

12°C <1%

13°C <1%

Polymarket

$305,546 Vol.

11°C or below

$11,475 Vol.

No

12°C

$18,523 Vol.

No

13°C

$40,668 Vol.

No

14°C

$58,777 Vol.

Yes

15°C

$35,677 Vol.

No

16°C

$47,960 Vol.

No

17°C

$25,733 Vol.

No

18°C

$10,796 Vol.

No

19°C

$14,549 Vol.

No

20°C

$15,830 Vol.

No

21°C or higher

$25,557 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations confirm London's highest temperature on April 1, 2026, reached 14°C in the early afternoon at key monitoring stations, solidifying the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome as traders aligned with verified data from the previous day. Cloudy skies and light winds capped warming after overnight lows near 7–8°C, matching pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 13–15°C amid typical early spring conditions influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. This reflects historical April norms for central London (average highs ~12–13°C), with no significant deviations. Post-event resolution leaves minimal uncertainty, though a rare sensor recalibration or alternative station data (e.g., Heathrow vs. St. James's Park) could theoretically prompt review.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$305,546
End Date
Apr 1, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations confirm London's highest temperature on April 1, 2026, reached 14°C in the early afternoon at key monitoring stations, solidifying the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome as traders aligned with verified data from the previous day. Cloudy skies and light winds capped warming after overnight lows near 7–8°C, matching pre-event ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 13–15°C amid typical early spring conditions influenced by a weak high-pressure ridge. This reflects historical April norms for central London (average highs ~12–13°C), with no significant deviations. Post-event resolution leaves minimal uncertainty, though a rare sensor recalibration or alternative station data (e.g., Heathrow vs. St. James's Park) could theoretically prompt review.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$305,546
End Date
Apr 1, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in London on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14°C" at 100%, followed by "11°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in London on April 1?" has generated $305.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in London on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in London on April 1?" is "14°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in London on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.