Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on April 4, anchored by official NOAA measurements at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), which recorded a daily peak of 13°C amid overcast skies, patchy light showers, and cool northerly winds that inhibited daytime heating. This outcome aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of below-average early April conditions—historical highs typically 15–16°C—suppressed by a lingering cool front over the Black Sea region. While final data validation is pending, revisions are rare for established airport readings; an unlikely sensor anomaly or urban heat microsite discrepancy could prompt review, but current evidence solidifies this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$81,859 Vol.
$81,859 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 100.0%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C or higher <1%
$81,859 Vol.
$81,859 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
13°C
$9,744 Vol.
100%
14°C
$7,449 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$9,573 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$9,213 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on April 4, anchored by official NOAA measurements at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), which recorded a daily peak of 13°C amid overcast skies, patchy light showers, and cool northerly winds that inhibited daytime heating. This outcome aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of below-average early April conditions—historical highs typically 15–16°C—suppressed by a lingering cool front over the Black Sea region. While final data validation is pending, revisions are rare for established airport readings; an unlikely sensor anomaly or urban heat microsite discrepancy could prompt review, but current evidence solidifies this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Volume
$81,859End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on April 4, anchored by official NOAA measurements at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), which recorded a daily peak of 13°C amid overcast skies, patchy light showers, and cool northerly winds that inhibited daytime heating. This outcome aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of below-average early April conditions—historical highs typically 15–16°C—suppressed by a lingering cool front over the Black Sea region. While final data validation is pending, revisions are rare for established airport readings; an unlikely sensor anomaly or urban heat microsite discrepancy could prompt review, but current evidence solidifies this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$81,859End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 13°C on April 4, anchored by official NOAA measurements at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), which recorded a daily peak of 13°C amid overcast skies, patchy light showers, and cool northerly winds that inhibited daytime heating. This outcome aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) observations of below-average early April conditions—historical highs typically 15–16°C—suppressed by a lingering cool front over the Black Sea region. While final data validation is pending, revisions are rare for established airport readings; an unlikely sensor anomaly or urban heat microsite discrepancy could prompt review, but current evidence solidifies this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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