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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

78°F or higher 41%

59°F or below 41%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

78°F or higher 41%

59°F or below 41%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below

$5 Vol.

41%

60-61°F

$121 Vol.

17%

62-63°F

$0 Vol.

17%

64-65°F

$0 Vol.

17%

66-67°F

$0 Vol.

17%

68-69°F

$0 Vol.

17%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

17%

72-73°F

$0 Vol.

17%

74-75°F

$0 Vol.

26%

76-77°F

$0 Vol.

24%

78°F or higher

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in global weather model ensembles for San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 4, with roughly equal implied probabilities for 78°F+ (41.5%) versus 59°F or below (40.5%), driven by uncertainty in upper-level pattern evolution. Recent historic late-March heat wave, featuring record-shattering highs near 84°F amid a persistent ridge and subsidence inversion, has fueled hot outliers in some GFS and ECMWF members projecting continued offshore flow and clear skies. Conversely, other ensemble runs anticipate marine layer redevelopment or weak troughing, capping highs under persistent coastal stratus typical for April's climatological mean of 63°F. Key watch: daily NOAA model updates through April 3, as pattern amplification could tip the balance.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in global weather model ensembles for San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 4, with roughly equal implied probabilities for 78°F+ (41.5%) versus 59°F or below (40.5%), driven by uncertainty in upper-level pattern evolution. Recent historic late-March heat wave, featuring record-shattering highs near 84°F amid a persistent ridge and subsidence inversion, has fueled hot outliers in some GFS and ECMWF members projecting continued offshore flow and clear skies. Conversely, other ensemble runs anticipate marine layer redevelopment or weak troughing, capping highs under persistent coastal stratus typical for April's climatological mean of 63°F. Key watch: daily NOAA model updates through April 3, as pattern amplification could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in global weather model ensembles for San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 4, with roughly equal implied probabilities for 78°F+ (41.5%) versus 59°F or below (40.5%), driven by uncertainty in upper-level pattern evolution. Recent historic late-March heat wave, featuring record-shattering highs near 84°F amid a persistent ridge and subsidence inversion, has fueled hot outliers in some GFS and ECMWF members projecting continued offshore flow and clear skies. Conversely, other ensemble runs anticipate marine layer redevelopment or weak troughing, capping highs under persistent coastal stratus typical for April's climatological mean of 63°F. Key watch: daily NOAA model updates through April 3, as pattern amplification could tip the balance.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in global weather model ensembles for San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 4, with roughly equal implied probabilities for 78°F+ (41.5%) versus 59°F or below (40.5%), driven by uncertainty in upper-level pattern evolution. Recent historic late-March heat wave, featuring record-shattering highs near 84°F amid a persistent ridge and subsidence inversion, has fueled hot outliers in some GFS and ECMWF members projecting continued offshore flow and clear skies. Conversely, other ensemble runs anticipate marine layer redevelopment or weak troughing, capping highs under persistent coastal stratus typical for April's climatological mean of 63°F. Key watch: daily NOAA model updates through April 3, as pattern amplification could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "59°F or below" at 41%, followed by "78°F or higher" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" is "59°F or below" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "78°F or higher" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.