Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mild highs of 66-69°F for Chicago on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 66-68°F amid an upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures for late March. This closely matched spread reflects model agreement on peak heating around midday but divergence in lake breeze effects from Lake Michigan, which could cap peaks at 66-67°F via cooler boundary-layer air, versus 68-69°F if offshore flow dominates. Historical March 26 averages hover near 47°F, with records up to 80°F, underscoring the warm anomaly; upcoming 12z model runs may sharpen odds as diurnal cloud cover and frontal timing clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
64-65°F 12%
70-71°F 12%
$68,220 Vol.
$68,220 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
4%
78°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
64-65°F 12%
70-71°F 12%
$68,220 Vol.
$68,220 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
4%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mild highs of 66-69°F for Chicago on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 66-68°F amid an upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures for late March. This closely matched spread reflects model agreement on peak heating around midday but divergence in lake breeze effects from Lake Michigan, which could cap peaks at 66-67°F via cooler boundary-layer air, versus 68-69°F if offshore flow dominates. Historical March 26 averages hover near 47°F, with records up to 80°F, underscoring the warm anomaly; upcoming 12z model runs may sharpen odds as diurnal cloud cover and frontal timing clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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