Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which project Buenos Aires' highest temperature at Ezeiza Airport on April 4 around 21-22°C amid early autumn mildness, with spreads of 1-2°C explaining closely matched odds for 20°C (23%), 21°C (21.5%), and 22°C (16.5%). Current mild conditions near 20°C today, combined with partly cloudy skies and light winds, support this clustering, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation and potential sea breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow could refine trajectories, as short-range forecasts often shift with evolving upper-air patterns. Historical April maxima at Ezeiza average 22°C, aligning with market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 4?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 4?
20°C 29%
21°C 22%
22°C 17%
23°C 14%
$10,698 Vol.
$10,698 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
6%
20°C
25%
21°C
22%
22°C
17%
23°C
14%
24°C
6%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
1%
20°C 29%
21°C 22%
22°C 17%
23°C 14%
$10,698 Vol.
$10,698 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
$1,021 Vol.
1%
18°C
$630 Vol.
3%
19°C
$703 Vol.
6%
20°C
$791 Vol.
25%
21°C
$815 Vol.
22%
22°C
$757 Vol.
17%
23°C
$700 Vol.
14%
24°C
$910 Vol.
6%
25°C
$634 Vol.
3%
26°C
$1,149 Vol.
2%
27°C or higher
$2,588 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which project Buenos Aires' highest temperature at Ezeiza Airport on April 4 around 21-22°C amid early autumn mildness, with spreads of 1-2°C explaining closely matched odds for 20°C (23%), 21°C (21.5%), and 22°C (16.5%). Current mild conditions near 20°C today, combined with partly cloudy skies and light winds, support this clustering, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation and potential sea breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow could refine trajectories, as short-range forecasts often shift with evolving upper-air patterns. Historical April maxima at Ezeiza average 22°C, aligning with market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$10,698End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which project Buenos Aires' highest temperature at Ezeiza Airport on April 4 around 21-22°C amid early autumn mildness, with spreads of 1-2°C explaining closely matched odds for 20°C (23%), 21°C (21.5%), and 22°C (16.5%). Current mild conditions near 20°C today, combined with partly cloudy skies and light winds, support this clustering, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation and potential sea breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow could refine trajectories, as short-range forecasts often shift with evolving upper-air patterns. Historical April maxima at Ezeiza average 22°C, aligning with market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,698End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which project Buenos Aires' highest temperature at Ezeiza Airport on April 4 around 21-22°C amid early autumn mildness, with spreads of 1-2°C explaining closely matched odds for 20°C (23%), 21°C (21.5%), and 22°C (16.5%). Current mild conditions near 20°C today, combined with partly cloudy skies and light winds, support this clustering, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover impacting solar insolation and potential sea breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and fresh 00Z model runs tomorrow could refine trajectories, as short-range forecasts often shift with evolving upper-air patterns. Historical April maxima at Ezeiza average 22°C, aligning with market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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