National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models place Austin's April 4 high temperature in the mid-70s Fahrenheit range, aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering across 72-79°F outcomes. Following a record-warm March and early-week highs near 90°F, an incoming upper-level disturbance introduces cloud cover and 20-50% shower chances through Friday, capping solar insolation and introducing variability in boundary layer heating. Model spread stems from uncertainties in morning cloud dissipation timing and light southerly winds versus potential post-frontal cooling, with climatological early April normals at 77°F providing baseline context. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
76-77°F 29%
74-75°F 17%
72-73°F 14%
78-79°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
7%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
29%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 29%
74-75°F 17%
72-73°F 14%
78-79°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
$280 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$359 Vol.
14%
74-75°F
$545 Vol.
23%
76-77°F
$338 Vol.
29%
78-79°F
$299 Vol.
14%
80-81°F
$300 Vol.
13%
82-83°F
$389 Vol.
9%
84-85°F
$425 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$1,310 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$1,913 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$1,851 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models place Austin's April 4 high temperature in the mid-70s Fahrenheit range, aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering across 72-79°F outcomes. Following a record-warm March and early-week highs near 90°F, an incoming upper-level disturbance introduces cloud cover and 20-50% shower chances through Friday, capping solar insolation and introducing variability in boundary layer heating. Model spread stems from uncertainties in morning cloud dissipation timing and light southerly winds versus potential post-frontal cooling, with climatological early April normals at 77°F providing baseline context. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$8,009End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models place Austin's April 4 high temperature in the mid-70s Fahrenheit range, aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering across 72-79°F outcomes. Following a record-warm March and early-week highs near 90°F, an incoming upper-level disturbance introduces cloud cover and 20-50% shower chances through Friday, capping solar insolation and introducing variability in boundary layer heating. Model spread stems from uncertainties in morning cloud dissipation timing and light southerly winds versus potential post-frontal cooling, with climatological early April normals at 77°F providing baseline context. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,009End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models place Austin's April 4 high temperature in the mid-70s Fahrenheit range, aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering across 72-79°F outcomes. Following a record-warm March and early-week highs near 90°F, an incoming upper-level disturbance introduces cloud cover and 20-50% shower chances through Friday, capping solar insolation and introducing variability in boundary layer heating. Model spread stems from uncertainties in morning cloud dissipation timing and light southerly winds versus potential post-frontal cooling, with climatological early April normals at 77°F providing baseline context. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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