Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) end-of-March settlement reflects a sharp reversal from early-month highs above $5,400 per ounce, with prices now hovering near $4,440 amid the contract's worst weekly drop since 1983—down over 10% in two weeks. Surging oil prices from escalating US-Iran tensions and Middle East conflict have fueled inflation fears, elevating real yields and strengthening the US dollar, which pressure non-yielding gold despite its safe-haven status. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, signaling potential 2026 hikes, has further dimmed rate-cut hopes. With settlement imminent on the final trading day, watch Friday's core PCE inflation data for last-minute volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGold (GC) above ___ end of March?
Gold (GC) above ___ end of March?
$162,568 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$7,000
<1%
$6,500
<1%
$6,000
<1%
$5,800
<1%
$5,600
<1%
$5,400
1%
$5,200
2%
$5,000
3%
$4,800
9%
$4,600
34%
$4,400
74%
$4,000
95%
$162,568 Vol.
$7,000
$16,314 Vol.
<1%
$6,500
$5,806 Vol.
<1%
$6,000
$18,080 Vol.
<1%
$5,800
$30,820 Vol.
<1%
$5,600
$4,847 Vol.
<1%
$5,400
$43,994 Vol.
1%
$5,200
$4,403 Vol.
2%
$5,000
$10,084 Vol.
3%
$4,800
$11,267 Vol.
9%
$4,600
$6,487 Vol.
34%
$4,400
$2,148 Vol.
74%
$4,000
$8,317 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) end-of-March settlement reflects a sharp reversal from early-month highs above $5,400 per ounce, with prices now hovering near $4,440 amid the contract's worst weekly drop since 1983—down over 10% in two weeks. Surging oil prices from escalating US-Iran tensions and Middle East conflict have fueled inflation fears, elevating real yields and strengthening the US dollar, which pressure non-yielding gold despite its safe-haven status. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, signaling potential 2026 hikes, has further dimmed rate-cut hopes. With settlement imminent on the final trading day, watch Friday's core PCE inflation data for last-minute volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$162,568End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) end-of-March settlement reflects a sharp reversal from early-month highs above $5,400 per ounce, with prices now hovering near $4,440 amid the contract's worst weekly drop since 1983—down over 10% in two weeks. Surging oil prices from escalating US-Iran tensions and Middle East conflict have fueled inflation fears, elevating real yields and strengthening the US dollar, which pressure non-yielding gold despite its safe-haven status. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, signaling potential 2026 hikes, has further dimmed rate-cut hopes. With settlement imminent on the final trading day, watch Friday's core PCE inflation data for last-minute volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Volume
$162,568End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) end-of-March settlement reflects a sharp reversal from early-month highs above $5,400 per ounce, with prices now hovering near $4,440 amid the contract's worst weekly drop since 1983—down over 10% in two weeks. Surging oil prices from escalating US-Iran tensions and Middle East conflict have fueled inflation fears, elevating real yields and strengthening the US dollar, which pressure non-yielding gold despite its safe-haven status. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, signaling potential 2026 hikes, has further dimmed rate-cut hopes. With settlement imminent on the final trading day, watch Friday's core PCE inflation data for last-minute volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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