WTI crude oil futures (CL) have rallied to around $81.50 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including Israel-Iran hostilities, adding a geopolitical risk premium that has pushed prices up 4% in the past week. However, trader sentiment reflects caution due to robust U.S. production at 13.2 million bpd and recent EIA inventory builds of 1.8 million barrels last week, offsetting demand worries from China's sluggish economic recovery. The U.S. dollar's strength and Fed policy expectations for steady rates further pressure prices. Key catalysts ahead include tomorrow's EIA storage report and the June 27 OPEC+ monitoring meeting, with end-of-June expiry looming—front-month contracts must hold above the threshold amid volatile positioning. Polymarket odds capture this tug-of-war between supply glut risks and supply disruption fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$23,863 Vol.
$90
50%
$85
56%
$80
60%
$75
67%
$70
84%
$65
86%
$63
88%
$60
86%
$56
88%
$55
78%
$52
94%
$50
94%
$23,863 Vol.
$90
50%
$85
56%
$80
60%
$75
67%
$70
84%
$65
86%
$63
88%
$60
86%
$56
88%
$55
78%
$52
94%
$50
94%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...WTI crude oil futures (CL) have rallied to around $81.50 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including Israel-Iran hostilities, adding a geopolitical risk premium that has pushed prices up 4% in the past week. However, trader sentiment reflects caution due to robust U.S. production at 13.2 million bpd and recent EIA inventory builds of 1.8 million barrels last week, offsetting demand worries from China's sluggish economic recovery. The U.S. dollar's strength and Fed policy expectations for steady rates further pressure prices. Key catalysts ahead include tomorrow's EIA storage report and the June 27 OPEC+ monitoring meeting, with end-of-June expiry looming—front-month contracts must hold above the threshold amid volatile positioning. Polymarket odds capture this tug-of-war between supply glut risks and supply disruption fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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