Market icon

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

$58,692,040 Vol.

Sep 18, 2024

50+ bps decrease 100.0%

25 bps decrease <1%

No Change <1%

25+ bps increase <1%

Jul 28Aug 11Aug 25Sep 80%20%40%60%80%100%

Source: Polymarket.com

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

RESULT

Rules

Additional context

Updated Sep 18

As per the rules, if the Fed cuts rates by 37.5 bps, all brackets would resolve to "No" - the 50 bps decrease bracket only resolves to “Yes” if the Fed cuts rates by exactly 50 bps.

There was a typo in the previous clarification - it should read "As per the rules, if the Fed cuts rates by 37.5 bps, all brackets would resolve to "No" - the 50+ bps decrease bracket only resolves to “Yes” if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps or more."

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's September 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by 50 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Volume

$58,692,040

End Date

Sep 18, 2024

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Comments (1763)
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Demorats

1d ago

initially i was boolish on 25. NOW WE DOING 50!

Demorats

4d ago

oh?

Demorats

6d ago

henlo

gzacjz

8d ago

gg

guazi

8d ago

will not see myself at having one

Luangrath

9d ago

This is the move,don’t choke

The herd’s stampeding

ez win

OneT

13d ago

no way to make money

muusd

11d ago

@OneT

why?

Just wait for Nickileaks, he has never been wrong

debased

debased

15d ago

Heard powell might change his rate decision. Big if true

username13

15d ago

ggwl until next time

slight-

15d ago

wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all

Pedro999

15d ago

@slight-

ya just imagine to lose $600k. that is a decent living for like 5 villages for next 50 years in my area.

Oxymirin

Oxymirin

15d ago

@slight-

Hahaha

thares

thares

15d ago

As was the most likely outcome. Fed will begin to stop QT, transition towards QE and pause the rates for another cycle. See you all in May.

MaverickMoves

Did I win? What was this bet for?

Empanadas

Empanadas

15d ago

I was so stressed. What a stupid bet... Risking 9k to win $70, can you imagine that?

Flipadelphia

@Empanadas

Nothing stressful about it, no change was a lock

Empanadas

Empanadas

15d ago

@Flipadelphia

Surprises can always happen

Pedro999

15d ago

no way to make money

Empanadas

Empanadas

15d ago

@Pedro999

Maybe next time

Erasmus

Erasmus

15d ago

See you in may

Flipadelphia

@Erasmus

Only another 65 fed meetings and you'll get to break even

@Erasmus

I hope I will live to see you with a positive pnl, at least I will not see myself at having one.

Kickstand7

Kickstand7

15d ago

so close

Ryu40k

15d ago

Man that would of been nice, gg bois

LT1

15d ago

Powell is gay

Flipadelphia

gg

BlackSky123

ERASMUS IS FUCKED

BlackSky123

WHAT THE FUCK

BlackSky123

OMG IT'S DECREAESED

@BlackSky123

you are just joking, right? It stayed the same

here we go

JunCheng

15d ago

25 decrease letssgoooo

SoniaSona

15d ago

How long till we know?

Kickstand7

Kickstand7

15d ago

Just 500 or $1k can net you life changing money on these. Act fast???

a suck 50+bps gambe

Pedro999

15d ago

we have to thank mr. Trump for this one. hes literally bringing economy into recession and FED will react by adjusting rates.

BlackSky123

@Pedro999

not a chance

LT1

15d ago

30 minutes to free money

AluCard

AluCard

15d ago

Lets see

Dadad

15d ago

Did jpow fart yet

Pedro999

15d ago

i wonder if Trump ruining the economy will force FED to change policy today.

igor1234

15d ago

lets get it!

zeliboba25

15d ago

ez money

epicRNG

epicRNG

15d ago

glgl

@epicRNG

what ARE YOU DOING BRO STOP GAMBLING !

BlackSky123

@epicRNG

How are you even worse at this website than me

ji69

15d ago

LFG

yyyykk

15d ago

10 dollars with the idea of buying a lottery ticket

Outcome: Yes

50+ bps decrease