Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
$58,692,040 Vol.
Sep 18, 2024
50+ bps decrease 100.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
No Change <1%
25+ bps increase <1%
Source: Polymarket.com
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
RESULT
Rules
Additional context
Updated Sep 18
As per the rules, if the Fed cuts rates by 37.5 bps, all brackets would resolve to "No" - the 50 bps decrease bracket only resolves to “Yes” if the Fed cuts rates by exactly 50 bps.
There was a typo in the previous clarification - it should read "As per the rules, if the Fed cuts rates by 37.5 bps, all brackets would resolve to "No" - the 50+ bps decrease bracket only resolves to “Yes” if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps or more."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's September 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by 50 or more basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$58,692,040
End Date
Sep 18, 2024
Resolver
0x2F5e3684cb...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
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Outcome: Yes
50+ bps decrease