Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. economic data amid an oil price shock that has elevated inflation expectations. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, with FOMC dot plots signaling just one 25-basis-point cut late in the year rather than aggressive easing. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, bolstering labor market strength, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts show core CPI ticking higher. Absent severe funding stress or recessionary collapse—currently priced at 28–40% odds for 2026—traders see no catalyst for unscheduled action. Key upcoming events include the April 29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$78,330 Vol.
$78,330 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$78,330 Vol.
$78,330 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. economic data amid an oil price shock that has elevated inflation expectations. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, with FOMC dot plots signaling just one 25-basis-point cut late in the year rather than aggressive easing. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, bolstering labor market strength, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts show core CPI ticking higher. Absent severe funding stress or recessionary collapse—currently priced at 28–40% odds for 2026—traders see no catalyst for unscheduled action. Key upcoming events include the April 29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$78,330End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. economic data amid an oil price shock that has elevated inflation expectations. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, with FOMC dot plots signaling just one 25-basis-point cut late in the year rather than aggressive easing. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, bolstering labor market strength, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts show core CPI ticking higher. Absent severe funding stress or recessionary collapse—currently priced at 28–40% odds for 2026—traders see no catalyst for unscheduled action. Key upcoming events include the April 29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$78,330End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by resilient U.S. economic data amid an oil price shock that has elevated inflation expectations. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, with FOMC dot plots signaling just one 25-basis-point cut late in the year rather than aggressive easing. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, bolstering labor market strength, while Cleveland Fed nowcasts show core CPI ticking higher. Absent severe funding stress or recessionary collapse—currently priced at 28–40% odds for 2026—traders see no catalyst for unscheduled action. Key upcoming events include the April 29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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