Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market tilts toward 240-259 posts (41.4% implied probability) over 260-279 (33.5%), reflecting a closely contested race driven by XTracker's latest sync showing 209 qualifying X posts through six days elapsed as of early April 2, averaging 35 daily—on pace for around 280 but tempered by historical late-week dips seen in prior periods like March 20-27's 260-279 resolution. Key differentiators include sustained engagement on viral California fraud exposés and birth rate debates, versus potential slowdown absent major catalysts like the April 1 SpaceX IPO filing news. With closure at April 3 noon ET, traders eye Musk's unpredictable reply and quote-post patterns for the swing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated240-259 41.3%
260-279 34%
280-299 13%
220-239 8.0%
$18,324,433 Vol.
$18,324,433 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
200-219
<1%
220-239
8%
240-259
41%
260-279
34%
280-299
13%
300-319
3%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 41.3%
260-279 34%
280-299 13%
220-239 8.0%
$18,324,433 Vol.
$18,324,433 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
200-219
$1,128,277 Vol.
<1%
220-239
$689,556 Vol.
8%
240-259
$562,057 Vol.
41%
260-279
$419,673 Vol.
34%
280-299
$402,701 Vol.
13%
300-319
$362,623 Vol.
3%
320-339
$344,010 Vol.
1%
340-359
$336,380 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$390,998 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$371,393 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$384,823 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$307,246 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$235,890 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$220,105 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$181,482 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$156,001 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$124,686 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$137,030 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$109,922 Vol.
<1%
580+
$128,696 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market tilts toward 240-259 posts (41.4% implied probability) over 260-279 (33.5%), reflecting a closely contested race driven by XTracker's latest sync showing 209 qualifying X posts through six days elapsed as of early April 2, averaging 35 daily—on pace for around 280 but tempered by historical late-week dips seen in prior periods like March 20-27's 260-279 resolution. Key differentiators include sustained engagement on viral California fraud exposés and birth rate debates, versus potential slowdown absent major catalysts like the April 1 SpaceX IPO filing news. With closure at April 3 noon ET, traders eye Musk's unpredictable reply and quote-post patterns for the swing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$18,324,433End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market tilts toward 240-259 posts (41.4% implied probability) over 260-279 (33.5%), reflecting a closely contested race driven by XTracker's latest sync showing 209 qualifying X posts through six days elapsed as of early April 2, averaging 35 daily—on pace for around 280 but tempered by historical late-week dips seen in prior periods like March 20-27's 260-279 resolution. Key differentiators include sustained engagement on viral California fraud exposés and birth rate debates, versus potential slowdown absent major catalysts like the April 1 SpaceX IPO filing news. With closure at April 3 noon ET, traders eye Musk's unpredictable reply and quote-post patterns for the swing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$18,324,433End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market tilts toward 240-259 posts (41.4% implied probability) over 260-279 (33.5%), reflecting a closely contested race driven by XTracker's latest sync showing 209 qualifying X posts through six days elapsed as of early April 2, averaging 35 daily—on pace for around 280 but tempered by historical late-week dips seen in prior periods like March 20-27's 260-279 resolution. Key differentiators include sustained engagement on viral California fraud exposés and birth rate debates, versus potential slowdown absent major catalysts like the April 1 SpaceX IPO filing news. With closure at April 3 noon ET, traders eye Musk's unpredictable reply and quote-post patterns for the swing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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