Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Elon Musk posting 1400 or more tweets in March 2026 at 49.3% implied probability, with adjacent high ranges like 1360-1399 at 16.8% reflecting expectations of sustained elevated activity averaging over 45 posts daily. This pricing extrapolates from Musk's recent monthly volumes, often exceeding 1200-1500 tweets, as tracked by analytics platforms amid his frequent replies, announcements, and platform interactions since acquiring X in 2022. Key drivers include a surge in 2024 posting rates during high-profile public engagements, now positioning higher bins as leaders, while lower outcomes trail due to no signs of deceleration; traders eye ongoing X leadership and advisory roles for potential continued momentum into 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1400+ 49.3%
1360-1399 16.8%
1320-1359 11.4%
1280-1319 9.2%
$3,094,752 Vol.
$3,094,752 Vol.
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
17%
1400+
49%
1400+ 49.3%
1360-1399 16.8%
1320-1359 11.4%
1280-1319 9.2%
$3,094,752 Vol.
$3,094,752 Vol.
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
17%
1400+
49%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Elon Musk posting 1400 or more tweets in March 2026 at 49.3% implied probability, with adjacent high ranges like 1360-1399 at 16.8% reflecting expectations of sustained elevated activity averaging over 45 posts daily. This pricing extrapolates from Musk's recent monthly volumes, often exceeding 1200-1500 tweets, as tracked by analytics platforms amid his frequent replies, announcements, and platform interactions since acquiring X in 2022. Key drivers include a surge in 2024 posting rates during high-profile public engagements, now positioning higher bins as leaders, while lower outcomes trail due to no signs of deceleration; traders eye ongoing X leadership and advisory roles for potential continued momentum into 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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