Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national tours through red states, robust fundraising exceeding $50 million, and executive experience as California governor positioning him as a pragmatic progressive alternative post-2024 election setbacks. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by her youth, social media dominance, and appeal to the party's left wing, while Jon Ossoff's 7% reflects his Georgia Senate victory and swing-state viability. In this open field, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, endorsements from Biden-era figures, and polling shifts amid economic or Trump administration developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom 25.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.9%
Kamala Harris 5.0%
$875,297,142 Vol.
$875,297,142 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
7%

Kamala Harris
5%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

James Talarico
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Liz Cheney
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

MrBeast
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
Gavin Newsom 25.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.9%
Kamala Harris 5.0%
$875,297,142 Vol.
$875,297,142 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
7%

Kamala Harris
5%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

James Talarico
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Liz Cheney
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

MrBeast
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national tours through red states, robust fundraising exceeding $50 million, and executive experience as California governor positioning him as a pragmatic progressive alternative post-2024 election setbacks. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by her youth, social media dominance, and appeal to the party's left wing, while Jon Ossoff's 7% reflects his Georgia Senate victory and swing-state viability. In this open field, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, endorsements from Biden-era figures, and polling shifts amid economic or Trump administration developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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