Gavin Newsom's commanding 25% trader consensus stems from his national fundraising prowess, media savvy, and vocal opposition to the incoming Trump administration, positioning him as a battle-tested executive in a post-2024 field lacking an incumbent. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 6.9% reflects Georgia's battleground value and senatorial poise; Kamala Harris lingers at 5.1% despite her recent loss. Differentiators include executive experience versus legislative records, ideological lanes from moderate to left-wing, and electability in swing states. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances, donor commitments, and policy contrasts over issues like abortion rights and economic populism, amid high uncertainty this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom 25.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.9%
Kamala Harris 5.1%
$875,531,471 Vol.
$875,531,471 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
7%

Kamala Harris
5%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

James Talarico
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Liz Cheney
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

LeBron James
1%

John Fetterman
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

MrBeast
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
Gavin Newsom 25.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 6.9%
Kamala Harris 5.1%
$875,531,471 Vol.
$875,531,471 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
7%

Kamala Harris
5%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Josh Shapiro
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

James Talarico
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Liz Cheney
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

LeBron James
1%

John Fetterman
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

MrBeast
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Gavin Newsom's commanding 25% trader consensus stems from his national fundraising prowess, media savvy, and vocal opposition to the incoming Trump administration, positioning him as a battle-tested executive in a post-2024 field lacking an incumbent. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 6.9% reflects Georgia's battleground value and senatorial poise; Kamala Harris lingers at 5.1% despite her recent loss. Differentiators include executive experience versus legislative records, ideological lanes from moderate to left-wing, and electability in swing states. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances, donor commitments, and policy contrasts over issues like abortion rights and economic populism, amid high uncertainty this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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