Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors 3.5-3.9% annual CPI inflation for 2026 at 29.6% implied probability, reflecting upside risks from surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and oil exceeding $100 per barrel, despite February 2026 headline CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% in January. Core measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median slowed to 2.3%, with food inflation persistent at 5.4%, but base effects and potential passthrough from higher gasoline costs underpin the moderately elevated trader consensus above Bank of Canada projections near 2%. The fragmented odds signal uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy at its 2.25% policy rate, wage dynamics, and US trade impacts, ahead of March CPI release on April 20 and the next FOMC-equivalent meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.5-3.9% 29.6%
3.0-3.4% 14.4%
2.5–2.9% 13.0%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$15,800 Vol.
$15,800 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
<1%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.9%
16%
3.0-3.4%
14%
3.5-3.9%
30%
4.0%+
14%
3.5-3.9% 29.6%
3.0-3.4% 14.4%
2.5–2.9% 13.0%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$15,800 Vol.
$15,800 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$282 Vol.
7%
1.0–1.4%
$303 Vol.
<1%
1.5–1.9%
$568 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.4%
$350 Vol.
5%
2.5–2.9%
$464 Vol.
16%
3.0-3.4%
$13,245 Vol.
14%
3.5-3.9%
$263 Vol.
30%
4.0%+
$325 Vol.
14%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors 3.5-3.9% annual CPI inflation for 2026 at 29.6% implied probability, reflecting upside risks from surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and oil exceeding $100 per barrel, despite February 2026 headline CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% in January. Core measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median slowed to 2.3%, with food inflation persistent at 5.4%, but base effects and potential passthrough from higher gasoline costs underpin the moderately elevated trader consensus above Bank of Canada projections near 2%. The fragmented odds signal uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy at its 2.25% policy rate, wage dynamics, and US trade impacts, ahead of March CPI release on April 20 and the next FOMC-equivalent meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$15,800End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors 3.5-3.9% annual CPI inflation for 2026 at 29.6% implied probability, reflecting upside risks from surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and oil exceeding $100 per barrel, despite February 2026 headline CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% in January. Core measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median slowed to 2.3%, with food inflation persistent at 5.4%, but base effects and potential passthrough from higher gasoline costs underpin the moderately elevated trader consensus above Bank of Canada projections near 2%. The fragmented odds signal uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy at its 2.25% policy rate, wage dynamics, and US trade impacts, ahead of March CPI release on April 20 and the next FOMC-equivalent meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$15,800End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors 3.5-3.9% annual CPI inflation for 2026 at 29.6% implied probability, reflecting upside risks from surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and oil exceeding $100 per barrel, despite February 2026 headline CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% in January. Core measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median slowed to 2.3%, with food inflation persistent at 5.4%, but base effects and potential passthrough from higher gasoline costs underpin the moderately elevated trader consensus above Bank of Canada projections near 2%. The fragmented odds signal uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy at its 2.25% policy rate, wage dynamics, and US trade impacts, ahead of March CPI release on April 20 and the next FOMC-equivalent meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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