Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?
$40,508 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 7, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC
Volume
$40,508End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 7, 2026, 10:23 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$40,508 Vol.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$40,508End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 7, 2026, 10:23 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...
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