Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 600B+ closing market cap for Anthropic's potential IPO (80.5% implied probability), propelled by fresh reports this week of the Claude AI developer eyeing a Q4 2026 debut with bankers projecting a $60 billion-plus raise at around its current $380 billion private valuation. This reflects explosive revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate—more than doubling since late 2025—fueled by Claude's App Store dominance and enterprise adoption amid intensifying AI competition with OpenAI and Google. A February Series G round raised $30 billion, doubling prior valuation and signaling strong backing from Amazon and Google. While no S-1 filing is confirmed, traders price in public market premiums for frontier AI labs, though a 16% chance of no IPO by 2027 accounts for regulatory hurdles or volatile tech sentiment; key watchpoints include formal announcements or model capability demos before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated600B+ 81%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 16%
400–600B 2.4%
300–400B 1.7%
$92,249 Vol.
$92,249 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
1%
200–300B
1%
300–400B
2%
400–600B
2%
600B+
81%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
16%
600B+ 81%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 16%
400–600B 2.4%
300–400B 1.7%
$92,249 Vol.
$92,249 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<100B
$47,486 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$3,275 Vol.
1%
200–300B
$3,332 Vol.
1%
300–400B
$25,402 Vol.
2%
400–600B
$3,263 Vol.
2%
600B+
$6,052 Vol.
81%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$3,437 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 600B+ closing market cap for Anthropic's potential IPO (80.5% implied probability), propelled by fresh reports this week of the Claude AI developer eyeing a Q4 2026 debut with bankers projecting a $60 billion-plus raise at around its current $380 billion private valuation. This reflects explosive revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate—more than doubling since late 2025—fueled by Claude's App Store dominance and enterprise adoption amid intensifying AI competition with OpenAI and Google. A February Series G round raised $30 billion, doubling prior valuation and signaling strong backing from Amazon and Google. While no S-1 filing is confirmed, traders price in public market premiums for frontier AI labs, though a 16% chance of no IPO by 2027 accounts for regulatory hurdles or volatile tech sentiment; key watchpoints include formal announcements or model capability demos before year-end.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$92,249End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 600B+ closing market cap for Anthropic's potential IPO (80.5% implied probability), propelled by fresh reports this week of the Claude AI developer eyeing a Q4 2026 debut with bankers projecting a $60 billion-plus raise at around its current $380 billion private valuation. This reflects explosive revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate—more than doubling since late 2025—fueled by Claude's App Store dominance and enterprise adoption amid intensifying AI competition with OpenAI and Google. A February Series G round raised $30 billion, doubling prior valuation and signaling strong backing from Amazon and Google. While no S-1 filing is confirmed, traders price in public market premiums for frontier AI labs, though a 16% chance of no IPO by 2027 accounts for regulatory hurdles or volatile tech sentiment; key watchpoints include formal announcements or model capability demos before year-end.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$92,249End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 600B+ closing market cap for Anthropic's potential IPO (80.5% implied probability), propelled by fresh reports this week of the Claude AI developer eyeing a Q4 2026 debut with bankers projecting a $60 billion-plus raise at around its current $380 billion private valuation. This reflects explosive revenue growth to a $19 billion annualized run rate—more than doubling since late 2025—fueled by Claude's App Store dominance and enterprise adoption amid intensifying AI competition with OpenAI and Google. A February Series G round raised $30 billion, doubling prior valuation and signaling strong backing from Amazon and Google. While no S-1 filing is confirmed, traders price in public market premiums for frontier AI labs, though a 16% chance of no IPO by 2027 accounts for regulatory hurdles or volatile tech sentiment; key watchpoints include formal announcements or model capability demos before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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