Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors James Talarico winning the Texas Democratic Senate primary by a 6.0–6.5% margin, reflecting recent internal polling and public surveys showing his consistent lead over challenger Molly Cook in State Senate District 14. Talarico's commanding position stems from superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus Cook's $450,000—key endorsements from progressive groups like the Texas AFL-CIO and former Rep. Lloyd Doggett, and strong grassroots mobilization in Austin-area precincts. Voter registration surges among young Democrats further bolster his edge. Realistic challenges include a late Cook advertising blitz narrowing the gap, unexpectedly high urban turnout for her, or an unforeseen Talarico gaffe ahead of early voting in October for the March 2026 primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMargen de victoria de las primarias demócratas del Senado de Texas (corchetes más pequeños)
Margen de victoria de las primarias demócratas del Senado de Texas (corchetes más pequeños)
Talarico 6,0–6,5% 100.0%
Talarico 10%+ <1%
Talarico 9,5–10,0% <1%
Talarico 9.0–9.5% <1%
$7,422 Vol.
$7,422 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Talarico 10%+
No
Talarico 9,5–10,0%
No
Talarico 9.0–9.5%
No
Talarico 8,5–9,0%
No
Talarico 8,0–8,5%
No
Talarico 7,5–8,0%
No
Talarico 7,0–7,5%
No
Talarico 6.5–7.0%
No
Talarico 6,0–6,5%
Sí
Talarico 5.5–6.0%
No
Talarico 5.0–5.5%
No
Talarico <5%
No
Talarico 6,0–6,5% 100.0%
Talarico 10%+ <1%
Talarico 9,5–10,0% <1%
Talarico 9.0–9.5% <1%
$7,422 Vol.
$7,422 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Talarico 10%+
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 9,5–10,0%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 9.0–9.5%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 8,5–9,0%
$7,422 Vol.
No
Talarico 8,0–8,5%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 7,5–8,0%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 7,0–7,5%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 6.5–7.0%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 6,0–6,5%
$0 Vol.
Sí
Talarico 5.5–6.0%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico 5.0–5.5%
$0 Vol.
No
Talarico <5%
$0 Vol.
No
Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors James Talarico winning the Texas Democratic Senate primary by a 6.0–6.5% margin, reflecting recent internal polling and public surveys showing his consistent lead over challenger Molly Cook in State Senate District 14. Talarico's commanding position stems from superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus Cook's $450,000—key endorsements from progressive groups like the Texas AFL-CIO and former Rep. Lloyd Doggett, and strong grassroots mobilization in Austin-area precincts. Voter registration surges among young Democrats further bolster his edge. Realistic challenges include a late Cook advertising blitz narrowing the gap, unexpectedly high urban turnout for her, or an unforeseen Talarico gaffe ahead of early voting in October for the March 2026 primary.
Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$7,422Fecha de finalización
Nov 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors James Talarico winning the Texas Democratic Senate primary by a 6.0–6.5% margin, reflecting recent internal polling and public surveys showing his consistent lead over challenger Molly Cook in State Senate District 14. Talarico's commanding position stems from superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus Cook's $450,000—key endorsements from progressive groups like the Texas AFL-CIO and former Rep. Lloyd Doggett, and strong grassroots mobilization in Austin-area precincts. Voter registration surges among young Democrats further bolster his edge. Realistic challenges include a late Cook advertising blitz narrowing the gap, unexpectedly high urban turnout for her, or an unforeseen Talarico gaffe ahead of early voting in October for the March 2026 primary.
Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$7,422Fecha de finalización
Nov 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors James Talarico winning the Texas Democratic Senate primary by a 6.0–6.5% margin, reflecting recent internal polling and public surveys showing his consistent lead over challenger Molly Cook in State Senate District 14. Talarico's commanding position stems from superior fundraising—over $1.2 million raised versus Cook's $450,000—key endorsements from progressive groups like the Texas AFL-CIO and former Rep. Lloyd Doggett, and strong grassroots mobilization in Austin-area precincts. Voter registration surges among young Democrats further bolster his edge. Realistic challenges include a late Cook advertising blitz narrowing the gap, unexpectedly high urban turnout for her, or an unforeseen Talarico gaffe ahead of early voting in October for the March 2026 primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes