Market icon
Política·Irán

¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?

Market icon
Política·Irán

¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?

$563,274 Vol.

28 feb 2026
Polymarket

$563,274 Vol.

Polymarket

>15%

$38,013 Vol.

Sí

>20%

$270,038 Vol.

Sí

>25%

$255,222 Vol.

Sí

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-15-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-20-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Volumen
$563,274
Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2026, 7:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-15-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-20-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Volumen
$563,274
Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2026, 7:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Resultado propuesto: Sí

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es ">15%" con 100%, seguido de ">20%" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?" ha generado $563.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 4, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?" es ">15%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es ">20%" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Las probabilidades de que Khamenei salga antes del 31 de marzo sobre__ en febrero?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.