US and Israeli airstrikes have targeted over 7,000 Iranian military sites since February 28, 2026, severely degrading ballistic missile production, naval assets, and air defenses, with the Pentagon declaring Iran's navy effectively neutralized. Iran continues limited retaliatory missile and drone launches at Israel and Gulf states while blocking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting coalition threats of escalation. On March 25, Iran announced review of a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, amid President Trump's claims of rapid progress and Tehran's demands for reparations and sovereignty recognition. Traders assess sustained degradation against negotiation breakthroughs and potential proxy escalations like Hezbollah involvement as pivotal to timelines for military action cessation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$193,250 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
3%
15 de abril
27%
30 de abril
56%
31 de mayo
77%
30 de junio
91%
$193,250 Vol.
March 29
$27,722 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,333 Vol.
2%
March 31
$80,280 Vol.
3%
15 de abril
$3,077 Vol.
27%
30 de abril
$1,014 Vol.
56%
31 de mayo
$1,997 Vol.
77%
30 de junio
$7 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes have targeted over 7,000 Iranian military sites since February 28, 2026, severely degrading ballistic missile production, naval assets, and air defenses, with the Pentagon declaring Iran's navy effectively neutralized. Iran continues limited retaliatory missile and drone launches at Israel and Gulf states while blocking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting coalition threats of escalation. On March 25, Iran announced review of a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, amid President Trump's claims of rapid progress and Tehran's demands for reparations and sovereignty recognition. Traders assess sustained degradation against negotiation breakthroughs and potential proxy escalations like Hezbollah involvement as pivotal to timelines for military action cessation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$193,250Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes have targeted over 7,000 Iranian military sites since February 28, 2026, severely degrading ballistic missile production, naval assets, and air defenses, with the Pentagon declaring Iran's navy effectively neutralized. Iran continues limited retaliatory missile and drone launches at Israel and Gulf states while blocking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting coalition threats of escalation. On March 25, Iran announced review of a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, amid President Trump's claims of rapid progress and Tehran's demands for reparations and sovereignty recognition. Traders assess sustained degradation against negotiation breakthroughs and potential proxy escalations like Hezbollah involvement as pivotal to timelines for military action cessation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$193,250Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
US and Israeli airstrikes have targeted over 7,000 Iranian military sites since February 28, 2026, severely degrading ballistic missile production, naval assets, and air defenses, with the Pentagon declaring Iran's navy effectively neutralized. Iran continues limited retaliatory missile and drone launches at Israel and Gulf states while blocking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting coalition threats of escalation. On March 25, Iran announced review of a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, amid President Trump's claims of rapid progress and Tehran's demands for reparations and sovereignty recognition. Traders assess sustained degradation against negotiation breakthroughs and potential proxy escalations like Hezbollah involvement as pivotal to timelines for military action cessation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes