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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Market icon
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 61.2%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Hassan Rouhani 5.8%

Masoud Pezeshkian 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,943,205 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 61.2%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Hassan Rouhani 5.8%

Masoud Pezeshkian 4.7%

Polymarket

$5,943,205 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,221,676 Vol.

61%

Reza Pahlavi

$128,576 Vol.

9%

Hassan Rouhani

$266,672 Vol.

6%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$238,928 Vol.

5%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$161,665 Vol.

5%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$364,182 Vol.

3%

Hassan Khomeini

$668,999 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$92,613 Vol.

2%

Sadegh Larijani

$171,731 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$770,698 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$238,592 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$190,957 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$267,683 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$228,182 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$73,483 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$51,559 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$41,230 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$145,160 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$20,092 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$30,738 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$25,161 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$16,923 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$46,014 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$32,933 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$63,225 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$45,230 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$46,006 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$25,888 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$12,843 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$18,706 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 61% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his official appointment on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, as announced by state media and endorsed by regime loyalists including the IRGC. This swift succession by the Assembly of Experts amid heightened escalation underscores institutional continuity despite external pressures. Recent rumors of Mojtaba's injury or relocation for treatment—fueled by his limited public appearances—have spurred speculation, with Iranian officials and Russian media denying severity, yet trimming his odds from higher peaks. Reza Pahlavi's 9% reflects bets on opposition-led regime change via unrest or further military actions, while low probabilities for reformists like Rouhani highlight entrenched hardliner dominance. Ongoing conflict dynamics and potential IRGC power plays could shift probabilities before resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$5,943,205
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 61% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his official appointment on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, as announced by state media and endorsed by regime loyalists including the IRGC. This swift succession by the Assembly of Experts amid heightened escalation underscores institutional continuity despite external pressures. Recent rumors of Mojtaba's injury or relocation for treatment—fueled by his limited public appearances—have spurred speculation, with Iranian officials and Russian media denying severity, yet trimming his odds from higher peaks. Reza Pahlavi's 9% reflects bets on opposition-led regime change via unrest or further military actions, while low probabilities for reformists like Rouhani highlight entrenched hardliner dominance. Ongoing conflict dynamics and potential IRGC power plays could shift probabilities before resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$5,943,205
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 61%, seguido de "Reza Pahlavi" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $5.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reza Pahlavi" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.