Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses implied at 40% narrowly leading >15 at 38%, reflecting low historical base rates—typically fewer than 5 per cycle—clashing against aggressive challenges from Trump-endorsed insurgents and PACs like the Club for Growth targeting 8-10 moderates. Recent June 4 primaries in Virginia, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota saw all vulnerable GOP incumbents win decisively, bolstering lower-bucket odds, yet Rep. Tony Gonzales' razor-thin 50.7%-49.3% Texas runoff victory on May 28 exposed "RINO" vulnerabilities amid fundraising gaps narrowing for challengers. Incumbency advantages in name recognition and cash keep moderate losses favored, but grassroots momentum and endorsements sustain >15 bets; separation could come from June 11 Nevada and 18 Oklahoma/Colorado primaries or August contests in Arizona and Washington, where multiple upsets would validate higher ranges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos titulares republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
¿Cuántos titulares republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
<3 12.1%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
12%
4-6
33%
7-9
40%
10-12
3%
13-15
25%
>15
38%
<3 12.1%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
$0 Vol.
12%
4-6
$0 Vol.
33%
7-9
$0 Vol.
40%
10-12
$0 Vol.
3%
13-15
$0 Vol.
25%
>15
$0 Vol.
38%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses implied at 40% narrowly leading >15 at 38%, reflecting low historical base rates—typically fewer than 5 per cycle—clashing against aggressive challenges from Trump-endorsed insurgents and PACs like the Club for Growth targeting 8-10 moderates. Recent June 4 primaries in Virginia, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota saw all vulnerable GOP incumbents win decisively, bolstering lower-bucket odds, yet Rep. Tony Gonzales' razor-thin 50.7%-49.3% Texas runoff victory on May 28 exposed "RINO" vulnerabilities amid fundraising gaps narrowing for challengers. Incumbency advantages in name recognition and cash keep moderate losses favored, but grassroots momentum and endorsements sustain >15 bets; separation could come from June 11 Nevada and 18 Oklahoma/Colorado primaries or August contests in Arizona and Washington, where multiple upsets would validate higher ranges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$0Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses implied at 40% narrowly leading >15 at 38%, reflecting low historical base rates—typically fewer than 5 per cycle—clashing against aggressive challenges from Trump-endorsed insurgents and PACs like the Club for Growth targeting 8-10 moderates. Recent June 4 primaries in Virginia, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota saw all vulnerable GOP incumbents win decisively, bolstering lower-bucket odds, yet Rep. Tony Gonzales' razor-thin 50.7%-49.3% Texas runoff victory on May 28 exposed "RINO" vulnerabilities amid fundraising gaps narrowing for challengers. Incumbency advantages in name recognition and cash keep moderate losses favored, but grassroots momentum and endorsements sustain >15 bets; separation could come from June 11 Nevada and 18 Oklahoma/Colorado primaries or August contests in Arizona and Washington, where multiple upsets would validate higher ranges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$0Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses implied at 40% narrowly leading >15 at 38%, reflecting low historical base rates—typically fewer than 5 per cycle—clashing against aggressive challenges from Trump-endorsed insurgents and PACs like the Club for Growth targeting 8-10 moderates. Recent June 4 primaries in Virginia, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota saw all vulnerable GOP incumbents win decisively, bolstering lower-bucket odds, yet Rep. Tony Gonzales' razor-thin 50.7%-49.3% Texas runoff victory on May 28 exposed "RINO" vulnerabilities amid fundraising gaps narrowing for challengers. Incumbency advantages in name recognition and cash keep moderate losses favored, but grassroots momentum and endorsements sustain >15 bets; separation could come from June 11 Nevada and 18 Oklahoma/Colorado primaries or August contests in Arizona and Washington, where multiple upsets would validate higher ranges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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