Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast projecting that exact peak amid transitioning showers to partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds below 3 m/s. Hourly projections indicate a midday top near 27–28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS global model ensembles under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that supports mild spring warming above the March climatological average of 23°C. Morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport confirm mid-20s Celsius readings, with persistent cloud cover and high humidity—around 80–90%—limiting further solar-driven intensification, augmented slightly by 1–2°C urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid clearing for prolonged insolation or localized microclimate spikes at the airport station, though current atmospheric stability renders these improbable; final hourly data through evening will confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
28°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$313,713 Vol.
$313,713 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$313,713 Vol.
$313,713 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
19°C or below
$109,752 Vol.
No
20°C
$18,643 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,925 Vol.
No
22°C
$9,883 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,816 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,181 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,855 Vol.
No
26°C
$24,146 Vol.
No
27°C
$57,525 Vol.
No
28°C
$28,285 Vol.
Yes
29°C or higher
$25,703 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast projecting that exact peak amid transitioning showers to partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds below 3 m/s. Hourly projections indicate a midday top near 27–28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS global model ensembles under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that supports mild spring warming above the March climatological average of 23°C. Morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport confirm mid-20s Celsius readings, with persistent cloud cover and high humidity—around 80–90%—limiting further solar-driven intensification, augmented slightly by 1–2°C urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid clearing for prolonged insolation or localized microclimate spikes at the airport station, though current atmospheric stability renders these improbable; final hourly data through evening will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Volumen
$313,713Fecha de finalización
Mar 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast projecting that exact peak amid transitioning showers to partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds below 3 m/s. Hourly projections indicate a midday top near 27–28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS global model ensembles under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that supports mild spring warming above the March climatological average of 23°C. Morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport confirm mid-20s Celsius readings, with persistent cloud cover and high humidity—around 80–90%—limiting further solar-driven intensification, augmented slightly by 1–2°C urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid clearing for prolonged insolation or localized microclimate spikes at the airport station, though current atmospheric stability renders these improbable; final hourly data through evening will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$313,713Fecha de finalización
Mar 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast projecting that exact peak amid transitioning showers to partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds below 3 m/s. Hourly projections indicate a midday top near 27–28°C, aligning with ECMWF and GFS global model ensembles under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that supports mild spring warming above the March climatological average of 23°C. Morning observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport confirm mid-20s Celsius readings, with persistent cloud cover and high humidity—around 80–90%—limiting further solar-driven intensification, augmented slightly by 1–2°C urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges include unexpected rapid clearing for prolonged insolation or localized microclimate spikes at the airport station, though current atmospheric stability renders these improbable; final hourly data through evening will confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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