Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 11°C (36.5%) or 12°C (28.5%) in London on March 29, reflecting the latest Met Office and ECMWF model ensembles projecting mild spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge. Recent forecast updates from March 27 show a slight cooling trend, with ensemble means at 11-12°C amid partly cloudy skies, down from earlier GFS runs hinting at 13°C due to resolved uncertainties in Atlantic moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability, which could suppress peaks by 1-2°C via reduced insolation, versus clearer skies boosting urban heat island effects; soil temperatures remain cool post-winter, capping extremes. New Met Office guidance expected March 28 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 29 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 29 de marzo?
11°C 37%
12°C 28%
10°C 13%
13°C 13%
6°C o menos
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
3%
9°C
7%
10°C
13%
11°C
37%
12°C
28%
13°C
13%
14°C
7%
15°C
1%
16°C o más
<1%
11°C 37%
12°C 28%
10°C 13%
13°C 13%
6°C o menos
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
3%
9°C
7%
10°C
13%
11°C
37%
12°C
28%
13°C
13%
14°C
7%
15°C
1%
16°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 11°C (36.5%) or 12°C (28.5%) in London on March 29, reflecting the latest Met Office and ECMWF model ensembles projecting mild spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge. Recent forecast updates from March 27 show a slight cooling trend, with ensemble means at 11-12°C amid partly cloudy skies, down from earlier GFS runs hinting at 13°C due to resolved uncertainties in Atlantic moisture inflow. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability, which could suppress peaks by 1-2°C via reduced insolation, versus clearer skies boosting urban heat island effects; soil temperatures remain cool post-winter, capping extremes. New Met Office guidance expected March 28 could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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