Latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble forecasts point to a high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving trader consensus toward a 17°C or higher outcome at 33% implied probability for Seoul's March 29 peak temperature, amid recent above-average warmth with highs reaching 16-18°C over the past week. This setup favors mild conditions, but high uncertainty stems from model spread, including potential cold air advection from Siberian highs or shifting jet stream patterns, distributing probabilities evenly across 14-16°C outcomes (19.5-13.5%). Climatologically, March highs average 12°C, yet spring variability amplifies risks; traders eye daily KMA updates and 12Z model runs for shifts before resolution based on official observations at Seoul stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Seúl el 29 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Seúl el 29 de marzo?
17°C o más 34%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 14%
7°C o menos
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
4%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
8%
13°C
12%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
14%
17°C o más
34%
17°C o más 34%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
16°C 14%
7°C o menos
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
4%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
8%
13°C
12%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
14%
17°C o más
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble forecasts point to a high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving trader consensus toward a 17°C or higher outcome at 33% implied probability for Seoul's March 29 peak temperature, amid recent above-average warmth with highs reaching 16-18°C over the past week. This setup favors mild conditions, but high uncertainty stems from model spread, including potential cold air advection from Siberian highs or shifting jet stream patterns, distributing probabilities evenly across 14-16°C outcomes (19.5-13.5%). Climatologically, March highs average 12°C, yet spring variability amplifies risks; traders eye daily KMA updates and 12Z model runs for shifts before resolution based on official observations at Seoul stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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