Trader consensus heavily favors 18°C as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22, with 47.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on mild highs in that range amid stabilizing spring conditions. Recent 00Z forecast updates from these global models show peak daytime temperatures of 17-19°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, influenced by warm air advection from the East China Sea and Shanghai's urban heat island effect boosting readings 1-2°C above rural areas. Historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration averages 12-14°C highs, but recent years' warming trends and absence of cold fronts have shifted trader odds away from sub-17°C outcomes, with key resolution hinging on official Shanghai station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 50%
17°C 20%
19°C 16%
20°C 8.5%
$134,359 Vol.
$134,359 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
20%
18°C
50%
19°C
16%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
2%
18°C 50%
17°C 20%
19°C 16%
20°C 8.5%
$134,359 Vol.
$134,359 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
20%
18°C
50%
19°C
16%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 18°C as Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22, with 47.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on mild highs in that range amid stabilizing spring conditions. Recent 00Z forecast updates from these global models show peak daytime temperatures of 17-19°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, influenced by warm air advection from the East China Sea and Shanghai's urban heat island effect boosting readings 1-2°C above rural areas. Historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration averages 12-14°C highs, but recent years' warming trends and absence of cold fronts have shifted trader odds away from sub-17°C outcomes, with key resolution hinging on official Shanghai station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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